Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
235 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
BOTH NAM AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOW VERY HUMID POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM
CONDITIONS REMAINING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
RECENT SATELLITE DATA SHOWS STILL SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DENNIS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THIS EVENING...WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO EXPECT THE WEATHER TO REMAIN HUMID WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE DAY HAVING HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
MONDAY. LOCATIONS GETTING MORE THAN 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN
3 HOURS CAN DEVELOP FLOODING. THESE LOCATIONS CAN ALSO GET LOW
VISIBILITY IN FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODEL RUNS SHOW A COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY
WITH DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. THE PREFRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY COULD
BE STRONG DUE TO INSTABILITY FROM THE CURRENT HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND
THE ADDED ENERGY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENED
UPPER FLOW ATTENDING THE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM.

THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO GIVE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...GFS MOS AND HPC GENERATED VALUES OKAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BASED ON VERY HUMID CONDITIONS CURRENT RADAR DATA TRENDS...HAVE
CUMULUS BASES BKN035 WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING INTO IFR (2SM
OVC020CB) IN +TSRA. AGAIN EXPECT VIS TO LOWER 08Z-12Z TO 3-5SM BR
HZ...ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS GETTING HEAVY RAIN THIS EVENING CAN LOWER
INTO IFR RANGE. SUNDAYS WEATHER EVOLUTION SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF
TODAYS SCENARIO.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
436 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-170835-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-
CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FAYETTE PA-
FOREST PA-GARRETT MD-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-
INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MARION WV-
MARSHALL WV-MERCER PA-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-
OHIO WV-PRESTON WV-TUCKER WV-TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-
WESTMORELAND PA-WETZEL WV-
436 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

15

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
331 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

PAZ023-162030-
INDIANA PA-
331 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...THUNDERSTORM UPDATE...

THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...
INDIANA...

AT 325 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH
INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHERRY
TREE....MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM CAN HAVE VERY
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.  LOCATIONS GETTING MORE
THAN 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAN DEVELOP
FLOODING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CHERRY TREE...CLYMER...GLEN CAMPBELL AND YELLOW CREEK STATE PARK

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
503 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

PAZ008-162200-
VENANGO PA-
503 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WERE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS VENANGO
COUNTY...PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS AND THE
ONES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WERE JUST SOUTHWEST OF SENECA...JUST
WEST OF TOONERVILLE...AND NEAR BLACKS. THE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST ABOUT 15 MPH.

BESIDE THE VERY HEAVY RAIN OF POSSIBLY AN INCH OR MORE...LOOK FOR
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
518 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

PAZ016-162215-
JEFFERSON PA-
518 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS WERE DUMPING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY...PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS AND
THE ONES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WERE OVER GREEN BRIAR...NEAR
CORSICA...SOUTHWEST OF RICHARDSVILLE...AND FROM GREEN VALLEY TO
BELLS MILLS. THE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 15 MPH.

MOTORISTS ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WEST OF BROOKVILLE NEED TO BE ALERT
FOR EXTREMELY LOW VISIBILITY AND PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADS.

IN ADDITION TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30 MPH AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
528 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

PAZ007-162230-
MERCER PA-
528 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...THUNDERSTORMS...

A SCATTERED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS FORMING IN MERCER
COUNTY...PENNSYLVANIA FROM NORTH OF HERMITAGE EAST TO NEAR PARDOE.
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OF RAIN OVER LOCALIZED AREAS
AS THEY SLIDE SLOWLY NORTH AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ALSO...BE ALERT FOR
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 25 MPH.