Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Pittsburgh, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NWS CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THIS PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH REGION BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO THE
EAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.

END RESULT WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES THRU.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PREVAIL INTO
FRIDAY.  BUT COOLER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...
ENDING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

AFTER A COOL LESS HUMID DAY ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BEGIN RETURNING SUNDAY.

HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 125 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005)

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM ZZV-HLG-
PIT-MGW LINE UNTIL SUNSET.  REST OF REGION HAS A CHANCE FOR POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.  BETWEEN 03Z-06Z FOG DEVELOPS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG THROUGH DAWN.  VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z WITH
SCT-BKN050.  WINDS LIGHT FROM SW THROUGH 00Z.  CALM TO VARIABLE
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TURNING THE THE WNW BETWEEN 13Z-15Z
WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 1138 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005)

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...

QUICK UPDATE WITH CONVECTION FIRING SOUTH OF CWA.  DID UP THE POPS
A TAD TO LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THIS CONVECTION.  REST OF
PACKAGE LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 231 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK BOUNDARY WITH SOME MINIMAL UL SUPPORT SLOWLY SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE THIS MORNING...THEN
SLOWLY STABILIZES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS AN AREA OF
COOLER AIR AT 85H PUSHES THROUGH. THIS COOLER AIR APPEARS TO BE
WRAPPING AROUND WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO IN. THIS SHOULD ACT AS
A CAPPING MECHANISM WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON. WENT WITH HIGH CHC POPS TODAY AS IT IS DIFFICULT
TO PLACE AREAS OF PCP. BOTH MODELS INDICATING AREA OF QPF MOVING
ALONG BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH GFS HAVING SOME FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS...BUT WITH NO SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING NOT SURE HOW
WIDESPREAD THE TRW WILL BE. THINKING IS THAT STORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD BE GOOD RAIN PRODUCES WITH PWS TO 1.7 AND WITH LITTLE FLOW
SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED FFW THREAT. ATMOSPHERE
QUICKLY STABILIZES OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVES MOVES THROUGH ON WED WHICH WILL KEEP
IN CHC POPS. HUMIDITY BACK ON THE RISE WED.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
BREAK IN THE PATTERN WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GFS SEEMS
TO BE HAVING SOME RESOLUTION PROBLEMS WITH COMPLICATED FRONTAL
PATTERNS WITH DEEPENING LOW MOVING INTO CANADA ON FRIDAY. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP IN CHC POPS FRIDAY AND AVOID TIMING AS MODELS STILL NEED
TO WORK THINGS OUT. UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NICE BREAK AND
GOOD TIMING WITH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
501 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-
029>032-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-290900-
ALLEGHENY PA-ARMSTRONG PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-BUTLER PA-
CARROLL OH-CLARION PA-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-FAYETTE PA-
FOREST PA-GARRETT MD-GREENE PA-GUERNSEY OH-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-
INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-JEFFERSON OH-LAWRENCE PA-MARION WV-
MARSHALL WV-MERCER PA-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-MUSKINGUM OH-NOBLE OH-
OHIO WV-PRESTON WV-TUCKER WV-TUSCARAWAS OH-VENANGO PA-WASHINGTON PA-
WESTMORELAND PA-WETZEL WV-
501 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
EAST CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS...THEY CAN STILL
SUPPLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS TO REACH SEVERE
LEVELS WILL COME ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

OHZ039>041-048>050-057-058-WVZ001-002-282108-
BROOKE WV-CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA OH-COSHOCTON OH-GUERNSEY OH-
HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM OH-TUSCARAWAS OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENTWOOD...CADIZ...CAMBRIDGE...CHESTER...
COLUMBIANA...COSHOCTON...DOVER...EAST LIVERPOOL...EAST PALESTINE...
FOLLANSBEE...HOOVERSON HEIGHTS...MINGO JUNCTION...NEW PHILADELPHIA...
NEWCOMERSTOWN...NEWELL...SALEM...STEUBENVILLE...TORONTO...
UHRICHSVILLE...WEIRTON...WELLSBURG...WELLSVILLE...
WINTERSVILLE AND ZANESVILLE
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THEIR PATH. PONDING OF WATER ON RUNWAYS IS POSSIBLE. MOTORISTS
SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVEL.