Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
230 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE IS ONGOING STRONG-SVR TSMS IN MAINLY
ERN 1/2 OF PAH FA. 12Z META PICKED UP NICELY ON THIS CONVECTIVE
OUTBREAK AND MID PM CONFERENCE CALL W/SPC HAS RESULTED IN SVR TSM
WATCH TIL 8 PM FOR MAINLY WKY-SWIN AND FAR SE IL. WL SEND NEW
PACKAGE SOON W/UPDATED HEADLINES ETC.

AFTER THE PM/EARLY EVENING ROUND...ATTENTION WILL BE REFOCUSED TO
THE WEST...AS COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION APPROACH.
EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A MID EVENING LULL...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS AFT
MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF FA AS FRONT MOVES IN. SLGT RISK OF SVR
CONTINUES W/INCOMING FRONT...ALTHOUGH TIME OF NIGHT MAY? HELP OUT A
LITTLE. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY INSISTENT ON A LATE NIGHT-EARLY SAT
AM FRONT MOVE THRU HEART OF FA...W/MOST PCPN ENDING FROM THE WEST BY
MIDDAY...AND CHANCE ONLY LINGERING IN EAST AS FRONT DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...12Z ETA HAS SLOWED DOWN ABOUT 1-3 HOURS ON TIMING OF
FRONT...DUE TO SHARPER DIG OF UPPER TROF...AND SINCE IT INITIALIZED
SO WELL...WEVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A GFS/ETA
COMPROMISE APPROACH. THE NET RESULT IS ABOUT THE SAME...A PRIMARILY
CATEGORICAL EVENT FOCUSED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...ENDING
TOMORROW PM AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST BY 00Z SUN.

AFTER THAT THE ONLY OTHER MINOR MODEL CHANGE IS A COOLER POST
FRONTAL SIGNAL...NOT TOO SURPRISING AS THE ETA HINTS AT A SHAPER DIG
OF THE TROF AND THE MODELS START TO GRASP THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT A LITTLE BETTER. THEREFORE WELL ADJUST THE GRIDS/TEMPS
DOWNWARD OR AT LEAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST MEX MOS
SUGGESTIONS FOR THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE. NEAR TERM MOS IS NOT TOO
DISSIMILAR AND HAD ONLY MINOR TWEEKS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SVR TSM WATCH #287 ALL COUNTIES TIL 8 PM.
MO...NONE.
IL...SVR TSM WATCH #287 EXTREME SERN IL COUNTIES TIL 8 PM.
IN...SVR TSM WATCH #287 ALL COUNTIES TIL 8 PM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-141000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...CAIRO...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...HOPKINSVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...MADISONVILLE AND HENDERSON
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY...TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     HAIL             CAIRO                   37.00N 89.18W
05/13/2005  0.88 INCH        ALEXANDER          IL   NEWSPAPER

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1243 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             HARRISBURG              37.74N 88.55W
05/13/2005  0.88 INCH        SALINE             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF PEA AND NICKLE SIZE HAIL IN DOWNTOWN
            HARRISBURG.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     HAIL             HARRISBURG              37.74N 88.55W
05/13/2005  1.00 INCH        SALINE             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SMITTY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

INZ082-131815-
PIKE IN-
1251 PM EST FRI MAY 13 2005

AT 1250 PM...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS JUST NORTH OF OTWELL IN
NORTHEAST PIKE COUNTY INDIANA...MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. A
RADIO STATION RECENTLY REPORTED SEMI TRUCKS BLOWN OFF THE ROAD IN
GIBSON COUNTY AT 1215 PM. MORE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.