Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Paducah, KY

March 27, 2005Caldwell County, Christian County, Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 27, 2005, 4:01 PM CST for Caldwell County, Christian County, Kentucky. It was in force for 44 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 27, 2005, 4:01 PM CST (22:01 UTC)
Expired: Mar 27, 2005, 4:45 PM CST
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Caldwell County, KY, Christian County, KY

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 563 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 437 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 572 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 27, 3:20 PM CST, 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 27, 3:20 PM CST, 41 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 PM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE INDICATED COPIOUS CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST AND SOUTH. 88D RADARS INDICATED TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF
SHWS/TSTMS THIS AFTN. ONE AREA OF SHWS COVERING MUCH OF AR WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL LOW NOW OVER SRN AR/NRN LA. THE
SECOND AREA OF SHWS AND SOME TSTMS COVERING MAINLY WRN TN/PART OF
SERN MO/WRN KY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH UVVS PROVIDED BY THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 100KT 300MB JET JUST AHEAD OF THE 500MB LOW.
MEANWHILE...THE 500MB LOW WAS BEGINNING TO CATCH UP WITH ITS
ATTENDANT SFC LOW WHICH WAS NOW LOCATED IN NRN AL. AS THIS
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT...THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN /IT IS HAPPENING ALREADY/...AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS ERN KY.
MODEL INDICIES INDICATE ENUF INSTABILITY OVER THE KY PENNYRILE
REGION FOR THUNDER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY ONGOING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN WRN TN NW OF THE SFC LOW.
FAVORITE MODEL FOR THE NEAR TERM PART OF THE FCST PACKAGE IS
GFS...WHICH SEEMED TO INITIALIZE THE BEST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SFC LOW THIS MORNING. THE PCPN SHIELD SHOULD EXPAND
NORTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA THRU MIDNIGHT...WITH A SOMEWHAT
LESSER CHC OF SIGNIFICANT PCPN NORTH OF A LINE FROM DUQUION TO
FAIRFIELD IL. 3 HR FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH...AND WE ARE EXPECTING TOTAL AMOUNTS WELL BELOW THAT IN SRN
IL/SERN MO/SWRN IN AND UP TO A HALF INCH IN WRN KY BEFORE ITS ALL
SAID AND DONE. AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY...RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE SFC WINDS INCREASE
TEMPORARILY AND BACK TO THE NW. BY MIDDAY MON...ALL PCPN WILL HAVE
ENDED AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY. AFTER TODAYS
HIGHS AROUND 50...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR 60 ON MON...WITH
WARMER TEMPS ON THE WAY THIS WEEK.

THE 12Z ETA AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.  MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION.  ALL THIS SPELLS A BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S AFTER A COOLISH START TO THE DAY.  GENERALLY STAYED
WITHIN THE RATHER TIGHT RANGE OF AVAILABLE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OR CLOSED
LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  DOWNSTREAM OF
THIS...THE QUAD STATE WILL BE IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  ALL
OF THE MODELS BRING A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ALOFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS.  HAVE
DECIDED TO FOLLOW HPCS BEST GUESS IN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
PRIMARY SURFACE SYSTEM.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS A WEAK FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE
AREA.  THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE QUAD
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES THE QUAD STATE.  LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH THE SURFACE SYSTEM WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE QUAD
STATE...THERE WILL BE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN TIED TO
THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING...ALLOWING
FOR A NICE CLEARING TREND FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  THERE STILL IS NO SIGN
OF ANY COLD SURFACE HIGH...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD THROUGH THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY...WITH CLOUDS AND THE COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY
THE 70S AGAIN FOR NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KY...NONE.
.MO...NONE.
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.

&&

DB/DRS

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 27, 3:54 PM CST, 7 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 27, 3:46 PM CST, 15 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 27, 3:47 PM CST, 14 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 27, 3:49 PM CST, 12 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 27, 3:52 PM CST, 9 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 27, 3:53 PM CST, 8 minutes before

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Local storm report, Mar 27, 3:55 PM CST, 6 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 27, 4:58 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Jackson, Perry	3 hr
Mar 27, 3:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Calloway	36 min
Mar 27, 3:41 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Trigg	49 min
Mar 27, 4:17 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hopkins	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.