Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW CENTERED NEAR LSX WITH A COLD
FRONT ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EVV AND BWG. VIS SAT PICS SHOW
DRY SLOT BISECTING PAH FA. IR SAT PICS SHOW TOPS COOLING OVER DRY
SLOT WHERE TSRA ARE DEVELOPING. 12Z TUE UA RUN SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER SGF WITH CURRENT SAT PICS INDICATING THE CIRCULATION HAD
PROGRESSED EAST TO JUST WEST OF FAM AT 17Z.

12Z TUE MODEL RUNS SHOWS COLD POOL...NEG 20C+ COLD POOL NEAR SGF
WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
MID AFTN. NUMEROUS COLD AIR FUNNELS ALREADY REPORTED OVER SEMO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD POOL. THIS HAS BEEN WELL
FORECAST BY THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW. ALSO WITH FREEZING
LEVEL AROUND 7K FEET AND THE NEG 20C FALLING TO AROUND 17K THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT HAIL TO BE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER WOULD NOT
RULE OUT ANY CIRCULATING STORMS...ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES LITTLE IF
ANY CIRCULATION WITH ONGOING TSRA. ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ADVERTISING UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND REGIME...EVEN THOUGH THE BACK TO THE
NW THROUGH THE FIRST PERIOD. 12Z TUE META FORECAST SOUNDING
INDICATING LIS AROUND -3...AND CAPES APPROACHING 1K J/KG...SCT
SEVERE IS LIKELY AGAIN WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL.

OVERNIGHT META FORECASTING LIS STILL MEANDERING AROUND A NEG 2C...
WITH CAPES AROUND 600 J/KG WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF TS OVERNIGHT.
BUT WILL TWEAK TO ISOLATED T ACROSS FA. AFTER 12Z WED WILL FORCE TS
MENTION TO EXTREME SE WITH RAIN FA WIDE. AFTER 00Z WED LOW DEPARTS
WITH ONLY A SLGT CHC EXTREME SE. AFTER 06Z WED HAVE KEPT FCST DRY
THROUGH DAY SEVEN. SYSTEM APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT VERY LOW
QPF ADVERTISED BY MODELS OVER FA AND TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE
ATTM.

AS FOR TEMPS...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GRIDS...EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS HERE AND THERE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 7 PM CDT.
.MO...NONE.
.IL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 7 PM CDT.
.IN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TIL 7 PM CDT.

&&

KH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
448 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-131000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...CAIRO...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...HOPKINSVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...MADISONVILLE AND HENDERSON
448 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI TODAY...
REACHING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN WITH THE STORM SYSTEM...MAY RESULT IN
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...MAINLY FOR WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>