Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
350 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2005

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

THE CONCERN FOR THIS PART OF THE FCST PACKAGE IS THE INFLUENCE OF
THE SLOW MOVING SFC FRONT/TROF THAT IS POISED TO THE NW OF THE
REGION.

CURRENT RADAR INDICATES LOTS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE KSTL
FCST AREA THIS AFTN ON THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
DRY SLOT THAT HAS SUPPRESSED MOST CONVECTION TODAY OVER OUR FCST
AREA. WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS TODAY...TEMPS EASILY ZOOMED INTO THE MID
90S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA...AND DEWPOINTS WERE HIGH ENUF TO
TRIGGER PLUS 100 HEAT INDICES IN MANY AREAS. THE CONVECTION TO THE
NW OF OUR AREA MAY BARELY SKIRT THE NRN TIER OF OUR IL COUNTIES AND
SWRN IN DURING THE EARLY EVENING. SWODY1 INDICATES THERE WILL BE
ENUF CAPE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR A SLIGHT RISK IN THAT PART OF
IL FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE GFS MAY BE OVEREMPHASIZING SOME OF THE WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN LARGE SPIKES IN ITS POP GUIDANCE.
THE ETA SOLUTION WAS CONSIDERED MORE HEAVILY. A NRN STREAM S/WV IS
PROGGED TO BUMP UP AGAINST THE DOMINANT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SERN CORNER OF THE CONUS. THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA ON SUN. POPS IN THE FCST GO FROM JUST THE NRN/NWRN TIER OF
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST CHC CATEGORY EVERYWHERE SUN
AFTN...LINGERING THROUGH MON BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT MON NIGHT
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES AWAY.

IN MAINLY WRN KY...SUN SHOULD OFFER ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT INDICIES IN
THE PLUS 100 RANGE WHERE CLOUDS/TSTMS SHOULD BE LESS ABUNDANT. THE
PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LOWER AFTN HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S IN THE NWRN THIRD FOR SUN AND THE NWRN HALF FOR MON...WITH
STILL LOWER 90S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...THEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE DIFFUSE.

TEMP FIGURES WERE LEANED TOWARD WARMER MET GUIDANCE SINCE THE GFS
SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO THE BE THE BEST ONE FOR THIS PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK ARE THE HANDLING OF THE
FRONT IN THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK OR INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS CONTINUE TO
BE TOO FAST WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK.  THE LATEST 12Z
RUN BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A MUCH
SLOWER SOLUTION.  REALLY HAVE NO GOOD FEELING ON THIS ISSUE...BUT
WITH GOOD UPPER RIDGING TO OUR IMMEDIATE SOUTH...A SLOWER SOLUTION
SEEMS BETTER.

HPC HAS A STATIONARY FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AT 12Z TUESDAY...AND KEEPS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK...UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT A SMALL POPS EACH DAY
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO/THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.  AM NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED THAT THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OR HAVE REFORMED NORTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY.  THEREFORE...WILL KEEP A CHANCE POP GOING DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE COMMENCING
WITH THE DAILY SMALL DIURNAL POP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAVE TRENDED THE CLOUD COVER BACK QUITE A BIT...INDICATING MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  ALSO
INCREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

AS FOR THE LATE WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE...WILL STICK WITH THE HPC
TIMING FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.  THE GFS IS INDICATING
QUITE A COOL DOWN A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR NEXT SATURDAY.  ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...FELT BETTER
ABOUT STAYING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS GUIDANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DS

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