Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE POPS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING EAST TO WEST
THROUGH THE CWA AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
EVEN WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE BEST STORMS
STILL NEEDED THE EXTRA BOOST FROM THE TERRAIN TO APPROACH SEVERE
LEVELS.  NO REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER HAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THIS
TIME.  GIVEN THE LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER NOW AT MAX HEATING...WOULD
FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE WE WOULD HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

FURTHER NORTH THERE ARE BOUNDARIES A PLENTY...NOT SURE WHICH ONE IS
THE TRUE FRONT...BUT THE NAM AND GFS BOTH DRAG IT MOSTLY THROUGH THE
AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVECTION
PUSHING EAST TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT...WHILE OTHER CONVECTION DIVES
SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...CLIPPING OUR WESTERN ZONES.  WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE ENTIRE TONIGHT PERIOD...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES WEST NEAR CURRENT ACTIVITY. WILL KEEP A 30 POP IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES FRIDAY MORNING FOR ANY LINGERING
CONVECTION...TRENDING TO A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  A MILDER...DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AS FOR TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MAV...BUT THERE
WAS LITTLE TO CHOOSE FROM.

&&

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

RATHER WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK. SUBTLE MID
LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR PRECIP CHANCES DURING
THE WEEK. AT SUCH A LONG TIME RANGE...THE MODELS ARE STILL FAR APART
ON THE TIMING OF THESE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES. GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. TIMING DIFFERENCES
ARE VERY LARGE...WITH THE 12Z GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE
FRONT TO SRN ILLINOIS LATE MONDAY. OVERALL...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE RAISED EARLIER IN THE
FORECAST...AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY
FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN MODEL AGREEMENT IS STRONGEST THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE LOWER OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
850 MB TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...HEAT CONCERNS SHOULD BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT
BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. BASED ON
THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS...IT APPEARS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BY THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GFS MOS TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.KY...NONE.
.MO...NONE.
.IL...NONE.
.IN...NONE.

&&

DRS/MY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
345 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-011000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...CAIRO...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...HOPKINSVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...MADISONVILLE AND HENDERSON
345 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THROUGH
SUNSET OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...AHEAD OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTING
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

OTHER STORMS MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON INDEPENDENCE
DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DRS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1020 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QULIN                   36.60N 90.25W
06/30/2005                   BUTLER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN. POWER LINES DOWN. TRANSFORMER
            ON FIRE AND POWER OUTAGE THROUGHOUT COMMUNITY. WIND
            DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF HARVIELL.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1036 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QULIN                   36.60N 90.25W
06/30/2005                   BUTLER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN WITH ONGOING TSTM
            WINDS. CONTINUED REPORTS OF COUNTY WIDE WIND DAMAGE AND
            TRANSFORMER FIRES DUE TO INTENSE LIGHTNING.

&&

SMITTY

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