Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...

KPAH 88D RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT. LAPS DATA REVEALS FA AIR MASS (CAPE) DESTABILIZED
INTO THE 1600-2100 J/KG2 RANGE. INHIBITING FACTORS SEEM TO BE LACK
OF WELL DEFINED SURFACE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY...WITH BROAD SWLYS NOTED
ACROSS FA WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY WELL YIELD SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO PERHATSM WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR DIURNALLY MOST UNSTABLE PART OF DAY...THRU 02Z.

AFT 02Z...EXPECT VERY BRIEF LULL...THEN PERHAPS OUR BEST STRONG TO
SVR STORM THREAT...AS COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY SEWARD
DIVING UPPER LOW AND STRONG DYNAMICAL PVA IS ROTATED AROUND IT.
BELIEVE BEST POPS WL BE ALONG AHEAD OF SAID FRONT/LOW PASSAGE...ESP
FROM 06Z-12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER BOX FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE MODEL DIVERGENCE ON THE UPPER LOW TRACK IS PERHAPS LEAST THIS
RUN BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT. NO MATTER HOW YOU LOOK AT IT THOUGH...IT
APPEARS THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LINGER ONLY A VERY EARLY
FRIDAY POP IN OUR FAR SERN MOST COUNTIES.

THE PRIMARY MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE IMPACT OF THE DIFFERING UPPER LOW
TRACKS ARE ON TEMPS AND ANY SUBSEQUENT CHANCES OF PCPN DOWN THE
ROAD. THE NGM MOS HAS BACKED OFF ITS EXTREME HIGHS AT 24 AND 48
HOURS...BUT IS STILL THE WARM MODEL. THE ETA HAS WARMED AND THE GFS
HAS MAINTAINED THE COOLER APPROACH...PROBABLY PER PMDHMD THAT ITS
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK HAS SLOWED THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE
NET RESULT WAS THAT OUR CONFIDENCE IN RETURN PCPN CHANCES ON DAYS 3
AND 6 WAS MINIMAL...SO WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY IN HOPES OF SOME
BETTER MODEL CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS. ALSO...WEVE NUDGED
OFF A TOTAL GFS BIAS TO A BETTER GFS/NAM BLEND GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AND THE PMDHMD MODEL TRENDS ASSESSMENT (PRO NAM).

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...SVR TSM WATCH 288 TIL 7PM AND 289 TIL 9PM ALL COUNTIES.
MO...SVR TSM WATCH 288 TIL 7PM ALL COUNTIES.
IL...SVR TSM WATCH 288 TIL 7PM ALL COUNTIES.
IN...SVR TSM WATCH 289 TIL 9PM ALL COUNTIES.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
705 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-201000-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PADUCAH...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...CARMI...
CARBONDALE...CAIRO...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...HOPKINSVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...MADISONVILLE AND HENDERSON
705 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS VERY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

INZ085-086-KYZ018-200630-
HENDERSON KY-POSEY IN-VANDERBURGH IN-
1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...STRONG WINDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY...

AT 1225 AM...RADAR SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG INTERSTATE 64...MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EVANSVILLE AND
HENDERSON AREAS THROUGH 130 AM...AND MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40 TO
50 MPH...ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE HAIL.

THE STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN SOME SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

CN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

INZ088-KYZ019-200630-
DAVIESS KY-SPENCER IN-
1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...STRONG WINDS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
KENTUCKY...

AT 1240 AM...RADAR SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WAS FROM JUST NORTH OF EVANSVILLE...TO NEAR
SANTA CLAUS...MOVING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THROUGH 130 AM...
THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH...ACROSS SPENCER AND THEN
ACROSS DAVIESS COUNTIES. EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

THE STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN SOME SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

CN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>