Alert archive / Illinois / Flash Flood Warnings in 2005

Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Paducah, KY

November 15, 2005Gallatin County, Saline County, White County, Illinois

NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at Nov 15, 2005, 3:36 PM CST for Gallatin County, Saline County, White County, Illinois. It was in force for 84 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 15, 2005, 3:36 PM CST (21:36 UTC)
Expired: Nov 15, 2005, 5:00 PM CST
In force: 84 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Gallatin County, IL, Saline County, IL, White County, IL

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 249 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 680 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 257 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 268 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KPAH 152138
FFWPAH
ILC059-165-193-152300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  GALLATIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
  SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
  WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

* UNTIL 500 PM CST.

* AT 332 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST 
ILLINOIS. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS. DOPPLER RADAR AND GAUGES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT FOUR TO 
SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER 
THIS REGION. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE 
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.  BE ALERT FOR RAPID RISES ALONG THE 
LITTLE WABASH AND SKILLET FORK RIVERS.

LAT...LON 3790 8870 3762 8871 3763 8819 3775 8814
      3777 8808 3791 8810 3818 8799 3824 8800
      3825 8836 3790 8836

$$

MTF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Nov 15, 1:42 AM CST, 13 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 15, 1:42 AM CST, 13 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES FROM CURRENT TIME THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS
ESPECIALLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE PAH CWA ARE IN A TORNADO WATCH
UNTIL 5AM CST.  LATEST RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING ACROSS
AREAS FROM CARTER AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN MISSOURI...TO UNION AND
WILLIAMSON COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...TO UNION AND HENDERSON COUNTIES IN
KENTUCKY. HAVE HAD SOME FLOODING REPORTS...ESPECIALLY URBAN
AREAS...ACROSS AREAS IN THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
GFS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT
PRECIP...INDICATES HEAVIEST PRECIP AREA WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE PAH
FA AFTER 12Z AS WARM FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH.  WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR ADDITIONAL URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM/FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...BUT WITH HEAVY RAIN ALREADY OCCURRING
AND EXPECTING THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN TO MOVE NORTH OF THESE AREAS
IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS LATE
TIME.

ON TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH SPC INCLUDING THE ENTIRE PAH
CWA IN A HIGH RISK...OBVIOUSLY WILL CONTINUE WITH SEVERE MENTION IN
TODAYS ZONES.  GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE
LOW...PUTTING IT OVER STL BY 18Z...BUT OVERALL POSITIONING IS VERY
SIMILAR WITH GFS MAYBE JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS FASTER THAN THE NAM.
LOOKS LIKE PRIME TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING
INTO VERY EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIP ENDING VERY QUICKLY FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  CURRENT GRID TIMING AND
CATEGORICAL POPS LOOK GOOD AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES.  ONLY
TWEAK TO TODAY WILL BE TO INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES NOW THAT WE ARE IN A HIGH RISK.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY.  AT 07Z...WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ALONG THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BORDER...TO NORTH OF PAH...TO JUST NORTH
OF EVV...TEMPS RANGE FROM 68 DEGREES AT PAH AND HOP...TO 48 DEGREES
AT MVN.  TEMPS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ARE ALREADY NEAR OR WARMER THAN
THE FORECAST HIGHS OF THE MAV AND MET...SO WILL LOOK TO THE WARMEST
FWC FOR GUIDANCE.  OVERALL EXPECT TO GO WITH A MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A MAJOR COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW.  TEMPS WILL
FALL TO 20 TO 30 DEGREES LOWER THAN WE HAVE BEEN HAVING...WHICH WILL
BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  BY LATE IN THE WEEK...TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONAL.

GFS DOES SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK...DRY COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER SATURDAY NIGHT.  SO FAR
ONLY EFFECTS LOOK LIKE MAYBE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS...BUT...BASED
ON LATEST MEX GUIDANCE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...STICKING PRETTY CLOSE TO
SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV VALUES.  IN THE EXTENDED...MADE SOME VERY MINOR
TWEAKS LATE IN THE EXTENDED BASED ON LATEST MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

RST

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 15, 3:55 AM CST, 11 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-161100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...MURPHYSBORO...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...
MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...JACKSON...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
355 AM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
QUAD STATE REGION TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  WARM...MOIST AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MAKES
ITS WAY NORTHWARD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE HEAVY RAIN.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...AFFECTING SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING. STORMS WILL
SPREAD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE
AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS. THE GROUND
IS SATURATED ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN
ONGOING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SO FLOODING MAY STILL BE
AN ISSUE WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

RST

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 15, 2:58 PM CST, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     JOHNSTON CITY           37.82N 88.93W
11/15/2005                   WILLIAMSON         IL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED 2.5 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSTON CITY
            ALONG ILLINOIS ROUTE 37 HEADING TOWARDS PITTSBURGH.

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 3:10 PM CST, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     DAWSON SPRINGS          37.17N 87.69W
11/15/2005                   HOPKINS            KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED SOUTH OF DAWSON SPRINGS ON HIGHWAY 91.

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 3:24 PM CST, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     TSTM WND GST     EVANSVILLE              37.98N 87.54W
11/15/2005  40 MPH           VANDERBURGH        IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 3:27 PM CST, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DAWSON SPRINGS          37.17N 87.69W
11/15/2005                   HOPKINS            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARN DESTROYED IN DAWSON SPRINGS REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
            OFFICE.

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 3:33 PM CST, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     TUNNEL HILL             37.52N 88.84W
11/15/2005  60 MPH           JOHNSON            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            60 TO 70 MPH WINDS REPORTED 1 MILE NORTH OF TUNNEL HILL
            BY ILLINOIS STATE POLICE.

&&

WIELGOS

Local storm report, Nov 15, 3:36 PM CST, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TORNADO          GALATIA                 37.84N 88.61W
11/15/2005                   SALINE             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND ON HARCO ROAD 4 MILES
            SOUTHWEST OF GALATIA.

&&

WIELGOS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 14, 9:31 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander	33 min
Nov 14, 9:41 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Pulaski	38 min
Nov 14, 11:16 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hardin	21 min
Nov 15, 1:25 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Johnson, Union, Williamson	3 hr
Nov 15, 1:34 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Gallatin, Hardin, Pope, Saline	3 hr
Nov 15, 4:21 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Jackson, Johnson, Union, Williamson	3 hr
Nov 15, 4:26 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Gallatin, Hardin, Pope, Saline	3 hr
Nov 15, 6:55 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Franklin, Hamilton, White	3 hr
Nov 15, 7:02 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Jackson, Johnson, Union, Williamson	3 hr
Nov 15, 7:09 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Gallatin, Hardin, Pope, Saline	3 hr
Nov 15, 8:23 AM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	White	52 min
Nov 15, 11:34 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Union	41 min
Nov 15, 11:54 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Jackson, Union, Williamson	2 hr
Nov 15, 12:26 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Franklin	94 min
Nov 15, 12:30 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Hamilton, Saline	2 hr
Nov 15, 12:35 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Williamson	40 min
Nov 15, 12:44 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Franklin, Hamilton, Saline	46 min
Nov 15, 1:07 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Edwards, Wabash, Wayne, White	53 min
Nov 15, 1:26 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Hamilton	21 min
Nov 15, 1:26 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Massac	34 min
Nov 15, 1:41 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Edwards, Wabash	94 min
Nov 15, 1:50 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Pope	25 min
Nov 15, 1:55 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Wabash	35 min
Nov 15, 2:05 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Hardin	25 min
Nov 15, 2:28 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Gallatin	37 min
Nov 15, 2:32 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Jackson, Union, Williamson	88 min
Nov 15, 2:33 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Union, Williamson	42 min
Nov 15, 2:38 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Johnson, Union, Williamson	52 min
Nov 15, 2:49 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Franklin, Hamilton, Jefferson	26 min
Nov 15, 3:08 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Alexander	37 min
Nov 15, 3:24 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Hamilton	36 min
Nov 15, 3:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Johnson, Pope, Saline	50 min
Nov 15, 3:36 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Saline	24 min
Nov 15, 3:42 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Gallatin	48 min
Nov 15, 3:49 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Edwards, Wabash	26 min
Nov 15, 3:56 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	White	49 min
Nov 15, 4:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hardin	50 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2005 Every flash flood warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.