Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
215 PM CST MON JAN 10 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

BIGGEST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AND TOTAL QPF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODLES IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE WEATHER PATTERNS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT DIFFER ON ACTUAL RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLID SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA TODAY
AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WITH THIS FRONT...BUT NOT A WHOLE LOT IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP...JUST SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HERE AND THERE.

FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS H50 HEIGHTS FALL AND MID LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME...ETA/GFS BOTH BRING A WELL DEFINED
H50 SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MID MS RVR VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND TUE
MORNING. THIS WAVE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO SET OFF RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE QUAD
STATE REGION. ETA ONLY SPITS OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MOST
AREAS...WITH AROUND 1/10 INCH NORTHEAST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE AND THE FRONT IN THE AREA...THINK GFS QPF
IS A BIT MORE REALISTIC...WITH 1/10 TO 1/4 INCH MANY AREAS LATER
TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.

AFTER THAT...WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TUE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...PUTTING US IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF TUE NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE IN THIS AIRMASS...BUT LOOKS
TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS IN THE MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT.
SO...COULD BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TUE INTO WED...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW RIGHT
NOW.

BIGGER STORY COMES INTO PLAY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS THE MAIN
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEP EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. DEEP...RICH MOISTURE WILL BE PUMPED
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT VIA 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET.
EXPECT WED NIGHT TO BRING THE HIGHEST CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. ETA/GFS BOTH PRODUCE 1/2 TO AND INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING NEARLY 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL AND STRONG DYNAMICS...COULD SEE THIS BRINGING CLOSER TO TWO
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. MAIN FLY IN THE OINTMENT HERE WOULD BE IF
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WED
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO COULD ACTUALLY CUT OFF MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY...AND
LEAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER RAIN TOTALS. SO...PREFER THE MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD FOR NOW...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL QPF. OVERALL RAIN TOTALS
THE NEXT 3 DAYS COULD EASILY REACH THE 1 TO 2 INCH CATEGORY...AND
THIS OF COURSE WILL PROLONG AND AGGRAVATE THE ALREADY SERIOUS
FLOODING CONDITIONS.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND BUT STAYED CLOSEST TO THE
WARMER MAV/ETA MOS TEMPS...ESP AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR OUTBREAK IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED OF THE
SURFACE HIGH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT 00Z SUNDAY...ECMWF SHOWS
THE 1050 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE GFS
PLACES THE HIGH OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS A MAJOR EFFECT
ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST WILL
BE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF...PER HPC GUIDANCE AND WFO
COLLABORATION.

THE COLD AIR MASS WILL INITIALLY MODIFY OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM AND
MOIST GROUND OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AFTER
THE GROUND FREEZES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODIFICATION WILL BE
SLOWER TO OCCUR DESPITE THE LACK OF SNOWCOVER. GFS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DOWN TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER BY
12Z SATURDAY. WILL LOWER FORECAST TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...MAINLY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL STILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS HPC GUIDANCE...THEY WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO GFS MOS
AND REFLECT BETTER COLLABORATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WEAK 500 MB IMPULSES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS. THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS ARE
TRENDING STRONGER WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.
WILL FORECAST A PERIOD OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...BUT
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER STRONGER MID LEVEL DYNAMICS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
.LONG TERM...YORK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
432 AM CST MON JAN 10 2005

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-102231-
ALEXANDER IL-BALLARD KY-BOLLINGER MO-BUTLER MO-CALDWELL KY-
CALLOWAY KY-CAPE GIRARDEAU MO-CARLISLE KY-CARTER MO-CHRISTIAN KY-
CRITTENDEN KY-DAVIESS KY-EDWARDS IL-FRANKLIN IL-FULTON KY-
GALLATIN IL-GIBSON IN-GRAVES KY-HAMILTON IL-HARDIN IL-HENDERSON KY-
HICKMAN KY-HOPKINS KY-JACKSON IL-JEFFERSON IL-JOHNSON IL-
LIVINGSTON KY-LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-MASSAC IL-MCCRACKEN KY-MCLEAN KY-
MISSISSIPPI MO-MUHLENBERG KY-NEW MADRID MO-PERRY MO-PERRY IL-PIKE IN-
POPE IL-POSEY IN-PULASKI IL-RIPLEY MO-SALINE IL-SCOTT MO-SPENCER IN-
STODDARD MO-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-UNION KY-UNION IL-VANDERBURGH IN-
WABASH IL-WARRICK IN-WAYNE MO-WAYNE IL-WEBSTER KY-WHITE IL-
WILLIAMSON IL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...PERRYVILLE...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...CARMI...CARBONDALE...CAIRO...
PADUCAH...OWENSBORO...MURRAY...MAYFIELD...HOPKINSVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...MADISONVILLE AND HENDERSON
432 AM CST MON JAN 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. MANY RIVERS
REMAIN IN FLOOD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND COMMERCIAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST STAGES AND FORECASTS FOR
THE LOCAL RIVER SYSTEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE BEING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOULD ENOUGH
INSTABILITY BE IN PLACE...A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN REACH SEVERE LEVELS
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL CHANCES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. ONE TO LOCALLY THREE INCHES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
ENTIRE RAIN EVENT. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE HIGH WATER LEVELS ON
ALREADY FLOODED RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS TO INCREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED.

JAP