Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
TSTM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE STILL HAS DECENT
PRESSURE RISES OCCURRING BEHIND IT EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS... THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA ZONES THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY...AND WEAKENING... LATER TODAY. A
COUPLE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST NEAR THE
FRONT THROUGH MID MORNING. TSTM CHANCES EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF
OKLAHOMA. UPPER SUPPORT EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION BY LATE
TODAY AS THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET MAX CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
INSTABILITIES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SOME SEVERE TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE... IF THIS MORNINGS FRONT CAN MAINTAIN SOME IDENTITY
THROUGH LATE TODAY... IT COULD ALSO ACT A FOCUS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... WE COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN... ANY AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES COULD HELP TO FOCUS THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE PLAINS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA BY MIDDAY... LIKELY STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT... HOWEVER... MESOSCALE FEATURES...
IN THE FORM OF BOUNDARIES REMAINING FROM THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION... COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE SHWR/TSTM
DISTRIBUTION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH ABOUT ALL OF THE AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ALL PCPN BEING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY.

ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS FOR NOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS WHERE MOISTURE MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGHER TO
SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SHWRS/TSTMS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TUES/WED FOR WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVING
AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER... AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS NORTH THROUGH ALL OF THE AREA BY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...
DRY/WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  85  66  82  54 /  20  40  60  50
HOBART OK         86  65  81  54 /  30  40  60  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  87  66  85  59 /  10  20  40  50
GAGE OK           81  59  71  48 /  60  80  40  20
PONCA CITY OK     84  64  78  53 /  50  80  60  40
DURANT OK         85  66  86  63 /  10  10  20  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER EASTWARD.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE..TO SEYMOUR.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER...TO OKLAHOMA
CITY...AND WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
ANYTIME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. AFTER 3
PM...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. AFTER 6 PM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE RISK AREA.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND 65 MPH WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM CHEROKEE...TO ERICK...WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE FRONT IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...WITH QUARTER SIZE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF A
STATIONARY FRONT...SURFACE LOW...AND DEVELOPING DRYLINE. A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 6 PM...WITH GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 65 MPH WINDS MOST
LIKELY. A SMALL CHANCE OF TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS IN THESE AREAS
THROUGH MID EVENING...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...ENHANCING
ROTATIONAL POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...90 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ERICK...TO WATONGA...AND PERRY...WHERE 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCHES MAY
BE NEEDED LATER TODAY...ONCE THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWARD...DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO PROCEED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER FRIDAY EVENING OR NIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

OKZ004-009-121815-
ELLIS OK-HARPER OK-
1255 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR NORTHERN ELLIS AND HARPER
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF CATESBY AT 1255 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ELLIS AND HARPER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

WR

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