Severe Thunderstorm Warning 628, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR HAS FINALLY
ARRIVED IN OUR VICINITY. THE UPPER LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST ACROSS
KANSAS TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FEATURES CONSIST OF A FRONT NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER... A LOW OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... AND
A DRYLINE SOUTH FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
IN ADDITION... A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW SOUTHWEST INTO
NEW MEXICO.  ALL THESE FEATURES WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST
TONIGHT. DYNAMICS WILL STRONGLY FAVOR SEVERE STORMS... BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE IN SOMEWHAT SHORT SUPPLY. NEVERTHELESS... WE WILL
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA... BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM MOVES EAST TOMORROW... THE WARM AND STORMY
WEATHER WILL BE REPLACED WITH A COOL NORTHWEST BREEZE AND POSSIBLY
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG OUR NORTHEAST BORDER. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND GIVE OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS MORE
TYPICAL LATE-OCTOBER WEATHER.

ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS DUE TO ARRIVE ABOUT SUNDAY MORNING.
TIMING IS QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. GIVEN THE
PERFORMANCE OF THESE TWO MODELS SO FAR THIS SEASON... HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH THE TIMING OF THE GFS. THIS COOL AIRMASS WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A VERY STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP TO THE COOLEST LEVELS SO FAR THIS SEASON ON MONDAY
MORNING. PLACES THAT ARE FAVORED FOR COLD MORNINGS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE MAY WELL SEE FROST MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  57  66  47  70 /  50   0  10   0
HOBART OK         55  71  48  73 /  20   0  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  59  75  50  75 /  20   0  10   0
GAGE OK           49  67  42  70 /  50   0  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     54  63  45  68 /  80  20  10   0
DURANT OK         64  79  53  74 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-201200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CROWELL AND WICHITA FALLS TEXAS...NORTHEAST TO PAULS
VALLEY AND HOLDENVILLE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
SUPERCELL STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND VEGETATION. ALONG
WITH THE LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA WHERE WE HAVE CONCERN FOR
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS AREA WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL... NORTHWEST... AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...
A MUCH ANTICIPATED STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM OVER COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER TO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH WEST CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE
STORM WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR LATER...BEFORE SURGING QUICKLY SOUTH AGAIN AS A COLD
FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THIS FRONT...A DRY LINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. ALL THREE OF THESE
FEATURES...THE SURFACE LOW...STATIONARY FRONT...AND DRY LINE...WILL
HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING...AND FORECASTED INSTABILITY MARGINAL...VERY STRONG FORCING
AND WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
YIELD STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING HAIL
BEING A CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR PROFILE EXPECTED...SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST
OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND NEAR THE STATIONARY FRONT.
THIS CORRIDOR OF CONCERN WILL EXTEND FROM AROUND CHEYENNE...
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WATONGA...ENID...AND PONCA CITY AREAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY OCT 20.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...85 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...THE POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS FALL SEASON TO BE USHERED
INTO THE AREA. A LIGHT FREEZE COULD OCCUR OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING. PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS CLOSELY.
IT WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO PLAN AHEAD FOR ANY PRECAUTIONS YOU MAY
HAVE TO MAKE FOR TENDER VEGETATION.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

A GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.

MAXWELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

OKZ005-010-192315-
WOODS OK-WOODWARD OK-
545 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES.

AT 545 PM...A LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT SUPPLY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WAS ALSO
ACCOMPANYING THIS STORM. NORTHERN WOODWARD AND WESTERN WOODS
COUNTIES ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...INCLUDING ALABASTER CAVERNS
STATE PARK...FREEDOM...AND PLAINVIEW.

PEOPLE IN WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
547 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             14 S BUFFALO            36.63N 99.63W
10/19/2005  0.75 INCH        HARPER             OK   PUBLIC

&&

TY/JLP

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