Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
149 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD INTO FAR NW
OK..AND THEN SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO NEAR SNYDER. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS PERHAPS A BIT BETTER THAN YDAY..BUT OVERALL
CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES ARE PRETTY SIMILAR TO YDAY. PERHAPS ONE IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE WAVE PROGRESSING NEWD FROM SW
TEXAS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF DRY PLUME EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY
ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO TX BIG BEND REGION. MULTIPLE CHANNEL WV
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WAVE AXIS IS SOMEWHERE FROM JUST NORTH OF
LUBBOCK ARCING SEWD TO JUST EAST OF SAN ANGELO..MOVING NEWD AT 15-
20 MPH. ASCENT WITHIN AREA JUST IN ADVANCE OF WAVE HAS SUPPORTED
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER CENT/WRN TEXAS MUCH OF THE MORNING.
IT LOOKS TO BE A CLOSE CALL ON TIMING..AS WAVE MAY MOVE TOO FAR
EWD TO SUPPORT DRYLINE STORMS. BUT..IF LIFT CAN BECOME
SUPERIMPOSED NEAR DRYLINE..AS CURRENT VIZ SAT IMAGES SUGGEST IT
MIGHT..STORM INITIATION AND/OR ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION TAPPING
INTO BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY APPEARS FAIRLY DECECNT. GIVEN
CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES..SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR
LIKELY..ON CONDITION OF INITIATION.

DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WWD THIS EVENING..BUT SHUD BE ON THE MOVE EWD
FAIRLY RAPIDLY THUR MORNING..WITH COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THE
DRYLINE FROM N TO S DURING THE DAY.  IT SEEMS THAT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP EARLY/MID AFTERNOON ALONG OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF I44..WITH
BEST CHANCES OVER SCENT/SE OK 3-10 PM THUR EVENING. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SEWD THUR NITE/FRI MORNING..WITH A WINDY BUT
MILD DAY FRIDAY. WE MAY NEED TO HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
MUCH OF WRN OK FOR FRI AFTERNOON IN LATER ISSUANCES.

RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE SRN PLAINS SAT/SUN SHUD BRING VERY
NICE SPRING WEATHER WITH COOL/COLD NIGHTS AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS SHUD ALSO BE LIGHT MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND..AT LEAST BY APRIL STANDARDS..UNTIL SRLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WEST ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINS LATE SUN INTO
TUE WITH NEXT WAVE..BUT MOISTURE WILL BE A PROBLEM AS SOUTH WINDS
SUN/MON WILL YET AGAIN HAVE TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING IN THE POST
FRONTAL COOL SFC RIDGE OVER THE NRN/WRN GULF. UNTIL WE GET A
PATTERN CHANGE THAT REMOVES THE PRESENCE OF THE MEAN ERN CONUS
TROF AND SUBSEQUENT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN THE NRN GULF
OF MEXICO..CHANCES OF GETTING A TRULY TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS INTO NTEX/OK APPEAR SLIM TO NONE.
 MILLER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  65  84  52  74 /  20  30  10  10
HOBART OK         63  86  51  75 /  30  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  90  58  78 /  30  30  10  10
GAGE OK           56  80  45  70 /  30  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     65  82  49  70 /  20  30  10  10
DURANT OK         65  84  61  80 /  20  40  50  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD... TO WATONGA... TO LAWTON OKLAHOMA...
AND TO AREAS JUST EAST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE RISK AREA CAN BE EXPECT TO BE INVOLVED IN SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND
WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FOR COMPLETE DETAILS CONCERNING THE LOCATION...DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF WEATHER FEATURES...REFER TO THE LATEST REGIONAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...OR CHECK THE NWS NORMAN WEBSITE...WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...
FOR GRAPHICS CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY APR 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY...AS THE DRY LINE AND A COLD FRONT SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

A GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
815 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 W QUANAH             34.30N 99.92W
04/20/2005  60 MPH           HARDEMAN           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED.

&&

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
818 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             4 SSW BUTLER            35.58N 99.21W
04/20/2005  0.88 INCH        CUSTER             OK   PUBLIC

0815 PM     HAIL             BURNS FLAT              35.36N 99.18W
04/20/2005  0.75 INCH        WASHITA            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
836 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SW DUKE               34.61N 99.65W
04/20/2005  70 MPH           JACKSON            OK   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED.

0828 PM     HAIL             1 W ELDORADO            34.47N 99.67W
04/20/2005  1.75 INCH        JACKSON            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

0828 PM     HAIL             5 W DUKE                34.67N 99.67W
04/20/2005  0.75 INCH        HARMON             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL ON HWY 62 ON JACKSON/HARMON COUNTY LINE.

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E ELDORADO            34.47N 99.62W
04/20/2005  60 MPH           JACKSON            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED.

0815 PM     HAIL             8 SE GOULD              34.59N 99.67W
04/20/2005  0.75 INCH        HARMON             OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
849 PM CDT WED APR 20 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     HAIL             OLUSTEE                 34.55N 99.42W
04/20/2005  1.00 INCH        JACKSON            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            WEST SIDE OF TOWN

&&

JLP

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