Severe Thunderstorm Warning 599, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
214 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CONT TO TRACK EAST ACROSS E NM INTO W TX THIS AFTN. HAVE
ALREADY SEEN SOME ELEVATED SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY AND EXPECT THIS
TO CONT... WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY BECOMING SFC BASED BY LATE THIS
AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS CONT TO SHOW CONSISTENCY IN
DEVELOPING STORM COMPLEX ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST AND THEN SPREADING IT
NE OVERNIGHT. THINK MODELS ARE OVERDOING PRECIP AMOUNTS...BUT COULD
STILL SEE A SWATH OF 1 TO 1 1/2 FROM SW INTO C OK TONIGHT. LARGER
AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD PUSH INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF OK BY SAT
AFTN... BUT AS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE MORE NE THAN E TOMORROW
ENOUGH FORCING WILL REMAIN IN AREA THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT BACK TOWARD CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OK SAT AFTN. WILL KEEP
SOME LOWER POPS GOING INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS.

THINGS DRY OUT AND WARM UP FOR SECOND HALF OF WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS
BY MID WEEK. LATEST RUNS SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE DOWN A FEW HOURS AND WILL
MAKE CHANGES BASED ON THIS SLOWER PROGRESSION. WILL KEEP SOME PRECIP
CHANCES INTO WED NIGHT WITH A NICE COOL DOWN BEGINNING ON WED ACROSS
THE NORTH AND CONT ON THU/FRI. TEMP FORECAST FOR WED COULD BE
ANOTHER DAY LIKE THIS LAST WED... WHEN WE SAW 100 DEGREE TEMPS ALONG
THE RED RIVER AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 60S IN THE NW... IF STRONG
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF SFC FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  80  68  88 /  90  60  20  10
HOBART OK         64  85  68  91 /  80  30  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  88  70  92 /  80  40  10  10
GAGE OK           59  85  65  90 /  30  20  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     63  78  68  88 /  70  60  30  10
DURANT OK         66  83  69  89 /  60  60  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
736 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATIONS...
THE SEVERE RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
35.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER...
ISOLATED INTENSE SUPERCELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGER HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
TENNIS BALLS.

DISCUSSION...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ON THE MARGINAL SIDE...DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR IS VERY STRONG...AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE STRONG
STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION...A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE REGION. STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED
TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY OCT 1.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING... MOVING MOSTLY EAST OF THE AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AT 7 AM SATURDAY...OCTOBER 1ST.

11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
814 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

OKZ017-023-010130-
BLAINE OK-CADDO OK-
814 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE AND CADDO COUNTIES.

A LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES WEST OF EAKLY AT
814 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS
AND INTENSE LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHERN CADDO AND SOUTHERN
BLAINE COUNTIES BETWEEN NOW AND 900 PM.

PEOPLE IN BLAINE AND CADDO COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
819 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             SEYMOUR                 33.60N 99.26W
09/30/2005  1.25 INCH        BAYLOR             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JLP/JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
824 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             9 E CORDELL             35.30N 98.82W
09/30/2005  0.75 INCH        WASHITA            OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP/JH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

TXZ089-010145-
ARCHER TX-
825 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ARCHER COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DUNDEE AT 825 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THIS
DANGEROUS STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL.

PEOPLE IN ARCHER COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF DUNDEE...MANKINS
AND ARCHER CITY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM VERY CLOSELY. WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM.

SMITH