Severe Thunderstorm Warning 531, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
146 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING. LATER TONIGHT, UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE RICH M OISTURE OF THE
TEXAS PANAHNDLE IS EXPECTED TO BE ACTED ON BY LIFT FROM THIS
TROUGH THE GENERATE ANOTHER NIGHTTIME COMPLEX. THE BULK OF THE
THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF OK, BUT THERE IS
SUFFICIENT REASON FOR CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE
STATE OVERNIGHT. RAIN MAY LINGER MONDAY MORNING IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTH, BUT AFTER MONDAY, HOTTER AND LESS RAINY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT CARRIED BY A NORTHERN
PLAINS TROUGH. THEN IT LOOKS RAIN-FREE AGAIN UNTIL A CHANCE NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A SIMILAR SITUATION. THE EXCESSIVE HUMIDITY IS HERE TO
STAY ANOTHER WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  92  68  92 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         68  92  67  93 /  40  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  93  69  94 /  40  20  10  10
GAGE OK           63  91  63  91 /  40  20  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     68  92  67  90 /  10  10  10  10
DURANT OK         69  94  69  92 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

09/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-291200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RED
RIVER.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...DUE TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...AND
INFLUENCE FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA...MORE STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP...WITH AN AVERAGE MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH AT 10 MPH. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE SUPPORTED DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...WITH
ONE STORM EARLIER EAST OF DODGE CITY...PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.
INSTABILITY. BY EARLY EVENING...THE CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
REDEVELOP WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING.

OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE FARTHER SOUTH...ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS NEAR THE RED RIVER...WITH 60 MPH WINDS AND
DIME SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY AUG 29.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR... 20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM MONDAY.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
131 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

OKZ035-038-281845-
COMANCHE OK-KIOWA OK-
131 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COMANCHE AND KIOWA COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA
MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE AT 131 PM CDT...DRIFTING TOWARD THE
WEST.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP.

PEOPLE IN COMANCHE AND KIOWA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES

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