Severe Thunderstorm Warning 516, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
PARTS OF FA...GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE HAVE RECEIVED HEFTY AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER PAST
TWO DAYS. SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.  5H LOW
OVER FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO/WESTERN NEBRASKA AIDING IN WIDESPREAD
RAIN/CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT SURE MODELS HAVE A FULL HANDLE ON THIS.  HOWEVER...
ETA STILL SUGGEST WITH 18Z RUN THAT FOCUS WILL SHIFT OR
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT. AS LLJ INCREASES
TONIGHT...STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PARTS OF FA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF STATE EARLY TUESDAY. NOT TOTALLY
CONVINCED OF THIS SCENARIO ...SO WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS.

EXPECT TSRA OVER EASTERN TX PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BETTER COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH.
WITH LARGER RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST PART OF FA
TONIGHT WILL NOT ISSUE FLOOD WATCH AS THIS AREA WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE MORE WATER. EXPECT CONVECTION THAT IS ONGOING EARLY IN THE
MORNING TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN SIMILAR TO CONVECTION THIS MORNING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF FA BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP BRING MAINLY DRY DAYS OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  90  70  93 /  40  40  20  20
HOBART OK         69  93  70  95 /  30  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  96  72  95 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           67  88  67  93 /  60  30  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     68  87  70  91 /  50  40  20  20
DURANT OK         72  95  73  94 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING HAVE ENDED WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS CLOUDS DIMINISH AND THE LOW LEVELS HEAT
UP...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY REFORM DURING THE AFTERNOON ALMOST
ANYWHERE IN OKLAHOMA OR NORTH TEXAS DUE TO THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
A VERY MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL.

LATE TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THESE STORMS WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A LARGER COMPLEX OF STORMS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST...
REACHING NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE LEADING EDGE REACHING NORTH CENTRAL... CENTRAL... AND
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BEFORE SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY
OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORM COMPLEX...IT CURRENTLY
APPEARS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY AUG 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...15 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. STORMS MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

OKZ014-222230-
ROGER MILLS OK-
515 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ROGER MILLS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHEYENNE AT
515 PM CDT. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH MAY OCCUR.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

WR

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
709 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

OKZ015-230030-
DEWEY OK-
709 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF LEEDEY AT 709 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

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