Severe Thunderstorm Warning 497, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
244 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING... COMBINED WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT CAP HAS LED TO
THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT THAT THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TEND TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER. THIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
THE WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHWRS/TSTMS SOUTHWARD AS WELL.
WILL ALL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF ENDING SHWRS/TSTMS
OVER THE SOUTH BEYOND WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS
SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH... AN ISOLATED SHWR/TSTM WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE... TEMPS SHOULD SHOW A
GRADUAL WARM UP OF A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  70  94  71  96 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         70  95  70  98 /  40  20  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  94  71  97 /  30  20  20  20
GAGE OK           68  95  68  97 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     70  95  71  96 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         73  94  72  96 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

25/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE ATMOSPHERE... ALONG WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY... WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. HOWEVER... VERY
WEAK WINDS ALOFT... COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY... SHOULD
PREVENT MOST STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY AUG 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...90 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...15 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS... WHICH WILL BE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS... WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY...AUG 8.

MAXWELL

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