Severe Thunderstorm Warning 479, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM NORTH OF THE MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEFORE THEY
DIE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY, EACH NIGHT
MAY SEE AN MCS IN SOME PART OF OK. STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING
DEVELOPING IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER CO AND NORTHERN NM WILL BE
AIDED BY A WEAK CENTRAL ROCKIES WAVE. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX
ROUNDS THE SOUTH PART OF THIS WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NM LATER THIS
EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SET UP THROUGH THE PAN HANDLES.
THE SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL ADD TO THE MAINTENANCE OF
STORMS AS IT DID LAST NIGHT. TONIGHTS COMPLEX MAY BE FARTHER WEST
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER FLOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL JET.

TUESDAY NIGHT, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY SEE THE
SAME PATTERN OF NIGHTTIME STORMS OVER OK AND NORTH TX. POPS HAVE
BEEN SPLIT BEFORE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
LOWERED SLIGHTLY THE NEXT 3 DAYS IN AREAS EXPECTED TO BE WELL-
BEHIND THE NIGHTS OUTFLOWS.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY FRIDAY, THE MEXICO RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISHES CHANCES FOR
NIGHTTIME STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  69  92 /  30  30  30  20
HOBART OK         70  92  70  94 /  60  50  50  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  93  72  96 /  40  40  30  40
GAGE OK           68  88  67  91 /  70  20  60  20
PONCA CITY OK     68  90  68  89 /  20  20  30  20
DURANT OK         72  92  72  94 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

9

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-051200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE RISK AREA IS MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA... TO
WEATHERFORD... TO MARIETTA... WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. MEANWHILE... ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THIS ACTIVITY...
SMALL HAIL... GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TONIGHT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 70 MPH... AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS THE RISK AREA
SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAINLY TONIGHT.
ALL PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN
ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS... AND TO STAY AWARE OF THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THROOUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED GENERALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AT
MIDDAY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. MEANWHILE... AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON... THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ONE OR MORE LARGE CLUSTERS AS THEY DIVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JULY 5.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK... AS A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE
AREA AND A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS. IN
THIS WEATHER PATTERN... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE THE
HIGHEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY JULY 5.

CJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
924 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             9 WSW JOY               33.52N 98.36W
07/04/2005  0.75 INCH        CLAY               TX   PUBLIC

&&

TY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1018 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

TXZ090-050330-
CLAY TX-
1018 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CLAY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CLAY COUNTY AT 1018 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CLAY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1036 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

OKZ045-050345-
JEFFERSON OK-
1036 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSCAR AT 1036
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN JEFFERSON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

OKZ045-050430-
JEFFERSON OK-
1103 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSCAR AT 1103
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN JEFFERSON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

OKZ004-050500-
HARPER OK-
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 4 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARPER COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 36 MILES NORTH OF
BUFFALO TO 20 MILES WEST OF ROSSTON AT 1140 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN HARPER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30

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