Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
223 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

.DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE STORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND JUST WEST OF METROPLEX. EXPECT AS HEATING
CONTINUES THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. STILL APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

EXPECT MOST OF THE STORMS TO BE EAST OF THE FA BY LATE EVENING
WITH LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING BACK INTO NORTHWEST PARTS OF FA.  WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40 ON MONDAY AS UPPER LOW LIFTS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS.

AS UPPER LOW WOBBLES SLOWLY EAST OF AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS.  EXPECT
DRY WEATHER UNTIL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS
TO THE WEST. BEST MOISTURE RETURN INITIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN SECTIONS OF FA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  69  43  69 /  40  20  10  10
HOBART OK         46  67  41  73 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  50  73  44  75 /  10  10   0   0
GAGE OK           44  61  37  70 /  20  20   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     52  67  43  67 /  60  20  10  10
DURANT OK         57  73  49  72 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ009-OKZ014-OKZ015-
     OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ027-OKZ033-
     OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ044-OKZ045.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-
     TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER A LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM ARCHER CITY TEXAS...TO
LAWTON...TO WEATHERFORD...TO BUFFALO.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT.

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

PEOPLE INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AT MID AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE EXTENDED
FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...THROUGH FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE DRY LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM ALONG THE
DRYLINE...AND MOST LIKELY WILL EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO A SQUALL LINE.
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER
TONIGHT.

SINCE THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY INTO A SQUALL
LINE... THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AND SOMEWHAT DEFICIENT MOISTURE...WHICH WILL HELP TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A TORNADO IN ANY
ISOLATED STORMS EARLY IN THE EVENT...OR IN SUPERCELL STORMS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY APR 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

WITH STRONG WEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRY
LINE...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY... ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND MONDAY... IS FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
ON MONDAY...APRIL 11.

24/SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
601 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

OKZ050-051-102330-
LOVE OK-MARSHALL OK-
601 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR LOVE AND MARSHALL COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARIETTA AT
601 PM CDT. THE STORM WAS NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. PERSONS ON AND NEAR
LAKE TEXOMA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS AS THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
743 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     HAIL             NORMAN                  35.22N 97.44W
04/10/2005  0.75 INCH        CLEVELAND          OK   PUBLIC

            LINDSEY AND ASP STREET

&&

TY/JS/JLP