Severe Thunderstorm Warning 450, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.UPDATE...
HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION SO FAR HAS SHOWN LITTLE IN WAY OF UPSCALE
ORGANIZATION. BUT LLJ IS PROGGED TO INCREASE...AND THIS MAY AID IN
MCS FORMATION. AT THIS TIME...MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST LIKELY
OVER TX WHERE LLJ WILL INTERSECT REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY AND CURRENT
CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PASS TO S OF OUR CWA...BUT SW CORNER IS ALREADY IN IT AND THUS
WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. ELSEWHERE HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT
POPS IN MOST AREAS...KEEPING HIGHER POPS OUT W PER EXPECTED LLJ
AXIS AND LATEST MODEL QPFS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CENTRAL
PLAINS CONVECTION FOR POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY/
ORGANIZATION AS IT ROLLS SE.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ONE-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
AREAS EXPECTED TO BE AT THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS... ALONG
WITH THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE... WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM
ALVA... TO WEATHERFORD... TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.

EXPECTED WEATHER AND IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...
BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE PREPARED TO
ACTIVATE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK. PERSONS WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO
STAY AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND AN EXCELLENT WAY TO STAY INFORMED IS THROUGH THE USE OF
NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO IF YOU ARE CAMPING AND AWAY FROM TV.

DISCUSSION...
TWO LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. ONE COMPLEX WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THE MAIN CONCERN
FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER COMPLEX WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS...AND AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN ONE-THIRD OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL
OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS COMPLEX.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORM
COMPLEXES...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS... PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER A LARGER
AREA...AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS ANOTHER FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO
EXPECTED...WHICH WILL FAVOR MORE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TODAY.

11

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>