Severe Thunderstorm Warning 409, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONVERGENCE HAS STEADILY INCREASED ALONG A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO
NEAR GARDEN CITY...WOODWARD...WEATHERFORD AND DUNCAN. MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPES NEARING 3000 J/KJ WITH LESS THAN 60 CIN. THE
LACK OF CUMULUS CLOUDS SUGGESTS CAP IS STILL HOLDING WITH ANOTHER
COUPLE OR MORE HOURS OF INSOLATION NEEDED TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP.
HIGH BASED CONVECTION RESULTING FROM DEEP ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...HOWEVER THE AREAL COVERAGE HAS
DECREASED PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM CONVECTIVE
MIXING. ANYHOW...LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST A
SMALL PLAYER IN THE NEAR FUTURE WEATHER.

IT IS STILL LOOKING LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND SUSTAINED
CONVECTION ARE MOST LIKELY NEAR AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. LESS WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO
NEAR WICHITA FALLS...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE HERE MAY BE WEAKER. WILL
CONTINUE EMPHASIZING THIS SCENARIO WITH POPS INCREASING ACCORDINGLY
BUT NOT CATEGORICAL. SHOULD SEE A LARGE INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS STORM MERGERS OCCUR WITH CLUSTERS
SUPPORTING A WIND/HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT....STORMS MAY
WEAKEN AS CAPE DECREASES/CIN INCREASES BUT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM
COVERAGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED. BY MORNING...ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS MAY
STILL BE INFLUENCING THE AREA ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RED RIVER. WILL
CONTINUE WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE BY AFTERNOON AS MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILS.

AFTER FRIDAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A
LARGE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
NEAR A DRYLINE WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT CAP WILL BE STRONG
FARTHER WEST WITH ONLY A WEAK WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT TO THE
STEERING FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD TO ALSO RISE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH 90S FOR HIGHS AND NEAR 70 FOR LOWS THROUGH DAY 7.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  67  90  67  92 /  70  30  30  10
HOBART OK         67  91  68  93 /  60  30  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  92  69  93 /  60  40  30  10
GAGE OK           65  89  67  93 /  70  20  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     65  87  66  90 /  70  30  30  10
DURANT OK         69  91  69  91 /  70  40  20  10

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
818 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS HIGH RISK IS SURROUNDED
BY A MODERATE RISK.

LOCATION...
THE HIGH RISK AREA COVERS A CORRIDOR FROM NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL...INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LOCATIONS
ENCOMPASSED BY A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHEROKEE... TO CHANDLER... TO
HOLDENVILLE... TO COALGATE... TO SULPHUR... TO ANADARKO... TO
CHEYENNE. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA ARE UNDER THE
MODERATE RISK. THE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THIS HIGH RISK WILL EXIST
PRIMARILY THIS EVENING OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE
IS EXPECTED.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZED INTO A DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS
COMPLEX AND SURGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF SOFTBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE
STORMS OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...WITH THE ANTICIPATED
HAIL SIZE DECREASING WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
CONCERN FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SURGES SOUTH. WIDEPSREAD THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED... WITH EMBEDDED CORRIDORS OF INTENSE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH... CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE COMPLEX OF STORMS AND SURGE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
UNSTABLE TONIGHT...AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MERGE INTO A
LARGE COMPLEX THIS EVENING...THEY ARE EXPECTED MOVE SOUTHEAST NEAR
AND JUST TO THE EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS...SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WOODWARD...TO JUST EAST OF CLINTON...TO NEAR DUNCAN AND MADILL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS...WHICH WILL
AGGRAVATE ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVERS. IF YOU LIVE NEAR FLOOD PRONE
AREAS...PAY ATTENTION TO WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND
IF WATERS RISE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY...JUNE 17.

11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

OKZ006-009-011-015-170200-
ALFALFA OK-DEWEY OK-ELLIS OK-MAJOR OK-
840 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR ALFALFA...DEWEY...ELLIS AND
MAJOR COUNTIES.

AT 840 PM CDT... RADAR DETECTED A LINE OF INTENSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAVERNE... TO WAYNOKA... TO ALVA... MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN ALFALFA...DEWEY...ELLIS AND MAJOR COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT
FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

 MILLER