Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
343 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WAS CENTERED NEAR BEAVER OKLAHOMA AT MID-
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALMOST DIRECTLY UNDER THE
CORRESPONDING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS ASSEMBLY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND SHOULD BE OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOMORROW AT THIS TIME. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES... AND UNDER THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.
THE FORMER STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST... AND WILL BE
MOSTLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY THE TIME THE ZONE FORECAST
OFFICIALLY TAKES EFFECT. WILL ATTEMPT TO INCLUDE A PRE-EVENING
SECTION IN THE FORECAST TO HOPEFULLY REDUCE CONFUSION. THE OTHER
STORMS WILL PROBABLY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING AND SHOULD SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH THE STORM SYSTEM. MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL... AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A
FEW OF THOSE STORMS.

THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT... BUT THE
RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
TONIGHT. TOMORROW WILL BE COOLER... AND QUITE WINDY.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER THEN SETTLES IN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK... AND ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHAT KIND OF WEATHER TO EXPECT IN ANY GIVEN
LOCATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BASIC PLAN IS FOR SATURDAY TO
BE WINDY... WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY INCREASE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER OKLAHOMA OR NEARBY
AREAS... BUT AGAIN... THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM WILL MAKE A LOT
OF DIFFERENCE AS SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY BE DRY... UNDER THE DRY
SLOT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  51  63  48  65 /  40  50  20  10
HOBART OK         49  67  47  69 /  50  30  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  51  71  50  69 /  20  10  10   0
GAGE OK           47  65  42  69 /  70  50  10   0
PONCA CITY OK     53  61  47  62 /  60  70  30  10
DURANT OK         56  69  52  66 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ008-OKZ012-OKZ013-
     OKZ014-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ021-OKZ022-
     OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-
     OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-OKZ036-OKZ037-OKZ038-
     OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-
     OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ012-OKZ013-
     OKZ018-OKZ019-OKZ020-OKZ023-OKZ024-OKZ025-OKZ026-OKZ027-
     OKZ028-OKZ029-OKZ030-OKZ031-OKZ032-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-
     OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-
     OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ006-OKZ011-OKZ014-
     OKZ015-OKZ016-OKZ017-OKZ021-OKZ022-OKZ033-OKZ034-OKZ035-
     OKZ036-OKZ037.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ004-
     OKZ005-OKZ009-OKZ010.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-
     TXZ086-TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ083-TXZ084-TXZ085-
     TXZ087.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR TXZ086-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

&&

02/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-061300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS EAST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MADILL...TO
SHAWNEE...TO ENID AND CHEROKEE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 3 PM
THROUGH 9 PM.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL MAY CAUSE DAMAGE TO AUTOMOBILES AND VEGETATION. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AT MIDDAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW WILL PUSH A DRY LINE QUICKLY EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...TO A POSITION FROM NEAR A MEDFORD...TO SHAWNEE...TO
ARDMORE LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON... FROM NEAR SHAWNEE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR ADA AND
LAKE TEXOMA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT RAPID
STRENGTHENING OF THESE STORMS TO SEVERE LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL LARGER THAN GOLFBALLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE  NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY EVENING.

A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA LATER TODAY...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER IN THIS AREA...BUT VERY COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...AND AN
ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF ISOLATED...BRIEF TORNADOES IN THESE AREAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY AROUND MID
EVENING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY APR 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE NEXT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

A GRAPHICAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEB AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/OUN.

2

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
308 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

OKZ009-014>016-052030-
CUSTER OK-DEWEY OK-ELLIS OK-ROGER MILLS OK-
308 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER...DEWEY...ELLIS AND
ROGER MILLS COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHATTUCK AT
308 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CUSTER...DEWEY...ELLIS...AND ROGER
MILLS COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45
MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

MAXWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
346 PM CDT TUE APR 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     WETUMKA                 35.24N 96.24W
04/05/2005  70 MPH           HUGHES             OK   POST OFFICE

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 PM CDT TUE APR 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             BROMIDE                 34.42N 96.49W
04/05/2005  0.75 INCH        JOHNSTON           OK   PUBLIC

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
408 PM CDT TUE APR 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             FILLMORE                34.27N 96.50W
04/05/2005  0.88 INCH        JOHNSTON           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JPIKE