Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
858 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO UNRAVEL AS IT MOVES INTO
WESTERN OK THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER SOME INITIAL SEVERE IT WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF A RAIN EVENT FOR SOUTHWEST OK AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NORTH TX. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THESE AREAS BEFORE
2 AM. UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL KS COMPLEX
HAS LED TO THE RETENTION OF 40-50 POPS IN NORTHWEST OK OVERNIGHT.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
256 PM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ERICK... TO WEATHERFORD... TO ALVA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES
ALL LOCALES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE... TO CUSHING.

TIMING...
SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

EXPECTED WEATHER AN IMPACTS...
ANY SUPERCELL STORMS THAT AFFECT WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS... AND DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF TORNADOES
WITH ANY ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PM THIS EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN ALL AREAS
EXCEPT NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM NORMAN... TO
WEATHERFORD... TO GAGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A DRYLINE HAS ALSO BECOME WELL-DEFINED FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE... NORTHWARD TO NEAR BEAVER OKLAHOMA... AND INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS... AND INTERSECTED THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR MEADE
KANSAS. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...
WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000.  DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS
INCREASING AND IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS.
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING... WITH SUPERCELLS PRODUCING UP
TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH
LIKELY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECASTED TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM THIS
EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT WITH
ANY SUPERCELLS IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY CONGEAL
INTO A LARGE COMPLEX THAT THEN MOVES EASTWARD WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS... WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE... ALONG WITH WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY CAUSE LOCAL
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL RESULT IN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS WINDS IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS INCREASE. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF OKLAHOMA LATE EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... WITH COMPLEXES OF STORMS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE MAIN
BODY OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL OR OUTDOOR PLANS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE TO STAY AWARE OF THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY NIGHT TIME COMPLEXES OF
STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY MORNING JUNE 10.

 MILLER

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