Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
240 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT MAKING PROGRESS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS (RUC) HAVE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
JUST NORTH OF PONCA CITY TO NEAR GUTHRIE AND THEN ALONG I-40
CORRIDOR BY 00Z WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM FRONT NEAR
GUTHRIE. LIMITED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL STILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. RUC HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN INDICATED NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE AS POSSIBLE AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT. FAIRLY SHORT
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF FA THIS EVENING.

AFTER FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF AREA FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTH TO EASTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL APPEARS THAT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BECOME LIKELY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS NEXT SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY 00Z SUNDAY
MODELS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH PLACEMENT OF UPPER LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS. COULD SEE AREAS NORTH OF THE LOW...MAINLY WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA HAVE PRECIP CHANGE TO OR MIX WITH SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AIR TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINAL FOR ANY ACCUMULATION AND SOIL TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...APPEARS THAT NEXT
CHANCE FOR SPRING-TYPE WEATHER WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  57  41  47 /  20  10  30  70
HOBART OK         43  57  40  45 /  10  10  30  60
WICHITA FALLS TX  47  66  45  50 /  10  10  30  60
GAGE OK           35  50  35  39 /  10  10  30  60
PONCA CITY OK     42  55  39  46 /  30   0  20  60
DURANT OK         51  68  46  53 /  30  10  30  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

SIX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-251300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CHEROKEE...TO OKLAHOMA CITY...TO MADILL.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM
THROUGH 8 PM.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...INDUCED BY AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...
HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION...THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM HAS INCREASED THE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
RESULTING IN A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO INCREASE...SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

IMPACTS...
IF SUPERCELLS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP... THE RISK OF HAIL AS LARGE AS
GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS STRONGER THAN 65 MPH WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST FRIDAY MAR 25.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME WILDFIRE DANGER WILL INFLUENCE AREAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRY LINE. THE MOST DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST ONE-QUARTER OF OKLAHOMA
AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A
CONCERN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

CMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
457 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKZ017-242315-
BLAINE OK-
457 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF EAGLE CITY AT 457
PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SMALL HAIL IS LIKELY.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN BLAINE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
533 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKZ017-018-242345-
BLAINE OK-KINGFISHER OK-
533 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BLAINE AND KINGFISHER
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF OMEGA AT 533 PM
CST...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
LIKELY.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN BLAINE AND KINGFISHER COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES

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