Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
423 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE WESTERN EDGE OF MCS DEVELOPMENT HAS MOVED LITTLE TONIGHT
CURRENTLY NEAR GREAT BAND AND PRATT KANSAS SUGGESTING A BALANCE HAS
BEEN REACHED AMONG INFLOW/OUTFLOW/STRENGTH OF CAP. FARTHER EAST...
WHERE THE CAP IS MUCH WEAKER...CONVECTION HAS MADE CONSIDERABLE
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. MODELS UNFORTUNATELY OFFER ONLY LITTLE INSIGHT
INTO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS SIGNIFICANT MODEL
SHORTCOMINGS AND POOR DATA INITIALIZATION DOMINATE THEIR FORECASTS.
THE NAM MAINTAINS A CONSIDERABLY MORE WARM/MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE 12-00Z THAN THE OTHER MODELS RESULTING IN BIG CAPES/LOW CIN
WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN ITS PERSISTENCE ON THE MCS CONTINUING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A STRONGER CAP. RUC SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE THE MCS HAS ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF
DOING THIS. RATHER...CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS WHERE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS HAD ALREADY OCCURRED SEEMS THE MOST PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO AT
THIS TIME. WILL THEREFORE FORECAST THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY EAST OF A
LINE FROM MEDFORD TO GUTHRIE AND HOLDENVILLE WITH THE GUST FRONT
MAKING IT PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER BEFORE WEAKENING
LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE INFLUENCE FROM THE MCS WILL RESULT IN
LOWER TEMPS/EASTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED STORMS OVER
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ARE ORIGINATING IN THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS NEAR A
WEAK 700 MB TROUGH. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.

LATE DAY/OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL RELY MOSTLY ON IF AND HOW MANY
STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES AND ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES POPS WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

THE DRYLINE AND FRONT WILL REMAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY/SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INFLUENCE THE AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN IN THE WEST AND
NORTH WHERE INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGHS WILL BE MOST FELT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  72  93  70 /  40  20  20  30
HOBART OK         96  71  94  68 /  30  30  30  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  96  72  94  70 /  20  20  30  30
GAGE OK           92  69  91  65 /  30  30  40  50
PONCA CITY OK     85  71  90  70 /  80  20  20  40
DURANT OK         91  72  92  71 /  40  20  20  20

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

JAMES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091700-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
ALVA... TO GUTHRIE... TO SHAWNEE... TO ARDMORE... TO ARCHER CITY
TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON... THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY AND ORIENTED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR ARNETT... TO
NORMAN... TO ATOKA. WHILE THIS FEATURE WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON... IT MAY STILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BE THE PRESENCE OF A
MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT
THIS TIME... QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE... A DRYLINE... LOCATED IN FAR WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING...
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ALONG THE DRYLINE... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON... WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS
POSSIBLY MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
TOWARDS EVENING.

DUE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD
PRODUCE HAIL TO NEAR 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 10.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...50 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON
FRIDAY... MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35... IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. MEANWHILE THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE. THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

CJS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
404 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

OKZ021-090915-
BECKHAM OK-
404 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BECKHAM COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTER AT 404
AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
846 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

OKZ008-013-091400-
KAY OK-NOBLE OK-
846 AM CDT THU JUN 9 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF RED ROCK AT 846 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

30