Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
412 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MODELS HAVE THE OVERALL PICTURE IN THE SAME FRAME..BUT DETAILS
DIFFER. BAD THING IS THESE DETAILS ARE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. FIRST...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL
EXPECTED OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS S/WV
APPROACHES AREA FROM SOUTHWEST. INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD SOME EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCERS
FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRIMARILY OVER
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND AT LEAST THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. BULK OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER OF NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...BUT WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN ZONE
FORECASTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAIN IMPACT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IS
MODERATE RISES ON RIVERS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS ISSUE.

AS FAR AS WINTER TYPE PRECIP...MODELS JUMPING BACK AND FORTH...ALA
MESOETA FROM 12Z VERSUS 18Z. NORTHERN ZONES WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW WILL BE NORTH
OF OKLAHOMA BORDER. HOWEVER...LATEST RUN OF MODELS HAD A SIGNAL
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR AT LEAST SOME CONSISTENCY. MIXTURE
OF RAIN AND SNOW WAS EXPANDED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND ALL SNOW WAS ADDED TO NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS ON GRASSY SURFACES APPEAR POSSIBLE AND WAS MENTIONED
IN SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

NO SIG CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS AS GREAT UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES
WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. OVERALL CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND CURRENT FORECAST WAS TO MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  42  34  46 /  80  90  70  10
HOBART OK         39  40  32  45 /  80  60  60  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  49  49  36  48 / 100  60  60  20
GAGE OK           34  37  28  41 /  70  60  60  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  39  30  42 /  60  70  60  10
DURANT OK         51  52  38  48 / 100 100  60  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OK...NONE.
.TX...NONE.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
140 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS A
PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AS SOUTH WINDS BEGIN PULLING
MORE MOISTURE NORTH OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT... WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... AND SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
RATHER COOL AND STABLE... MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
OVER THE COOLER SURFACE AIR... WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CROWELL TO
WICHITA FALLS LINE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE HAIL
TO NEAR THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. FARTHER NORTH... SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST WEDNESDAY FEB 23.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...20 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY...FEBRUARY 23.

MAXWELL

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