Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
251 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CHIHUAHUA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BRING STORMS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. AS THE WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING, COOLING IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
STORMS TO CONTINUE IN SOME FASION SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
OKLAHOMA TODAY. AN EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKALHOMA SHOUD ENHANCE LIFT LATER THIS
MORNING. A LOW LEVEL-JET TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD
INTERACT WITH REMAINING SYNOPTIC LIFT TO CAUSE MORE RAIN TONIGHT.

ONCE THIS WAVE DAMPENS AND PASSES SATURDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LOW
IN THE WESTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
KS SATURDAY EVENING, ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY IN NORTHERN
OK. WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH MINOR WAVES DIFFICULT TO TIME. LOW POPS REMAIN IN THAT FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  68  89  71 /  60  40  30  20
HOBART OK         85  67  90  69 /  50  30  30  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  69  92  71 /  60  30  20  20
GAGE OK           85  63  86  63 /  40  30  30  40
PONCA CITY OK     84  68  88  70 /  50  60  30  50
DURANT OK         84  70  90  72 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
415 AM CDT FRI JUN 3 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-041200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
INCLUDES ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
ANYTIME TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IMPACTS...
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

DISCUSSION...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN INFLUENCING WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE
TRACKING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CAP
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
DESPITE LIMITED HEATING POTENTIAL...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS POSSIBLE...ANYTIME AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES.

THERE WILL BE A SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. IF TEMPERATURES CAN RISE SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS THIS AREA IN
WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CONVERGENCE ALONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...OR A DEVELOPING DRYLINE IN THE OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT...WITH
THESE STORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GREATER INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WHICH COULD CONTAIN GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
70 MPH WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 4.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

AFTER SATURDAY...A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EVERY DAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA...A CAPPING INVERSION AND
REDUCED WIND SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY

JAMES

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