Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
BEGINNING TO GET BUSY. WITH UPDATE BIGGEST CHANGE WILL BE TO CONFINE
HIGHER POPS THIS EVENING OUT ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN SHIFT THEM
FARTHER EAST AFT MIDNIGHT WITH EXPECTED COMPLEX DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT. WILL ALSO TAKE OUT
HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS MAY
END UP BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WILL CONT TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT
OF THE EVENT. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OTHER GRIDS. UPDATES
OUT SHORTLY.

30

-----------------------------------------------------------
349 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A STALLED BOUNDARY... FORMERLY A COLD FRONT... LIES FROM NEAR THE
GREAT SALT PLAINS TO NEAR CHEYENNE OKLAHOMA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING...
GENERATING NEW BOUNDARIES OF THEIR OWN. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS LATER TONIGHT... HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
POSSIBILITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS WERE NOT TERRIBLY RELIABLE FOR HANDLING
THE SURFACE FEATURES TODAY... THEY DO APPEAR FAIRLY REASONABLE FOR
TOMORROW. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHWEST TEXAS... SLOWING THE PROGRESS OF THE REINFORCING SURGE
OF COLD AIR... AND HELPING TO ENSURE A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE FRONT AS IT OOZES THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOMORROW EVENING.
AGAIN... HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A POSSIBILITY... ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL... SOUTH-CENTRAL... AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

BASED PARTLY ON COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES... WE HAVE
ELECTED TO REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY WATCHES FOR FLASH FLOODING.
THE GROUND ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS IS
QUITE DRY... AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT THAT
RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING AT ALL.

THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BE DRIVEN OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY... AND RAIN CHANCES END BRIEFLY SATURDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER... THE MOISTURE DOES NOT GO FAR... AND RETURN FLOW ON
SUNDAY WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RIGHT BACK INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA.

THE COOL AIRMASS... AND CLOUDS RESULTING FROM THE MOIST RETURN
FLOW... WILL HELP KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AFTER TOMORROW.

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE NEXT WEEK... WHICH
WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES AND DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  82  54  74 /  40  70  60   0
HOBART OK         65  81  54  74 /  60  70  60   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  85  59  76 /  20  50  70  20
GAGE OK           59  71  48  72 /  80  50  40   0
PONCA CITY OK     64  78  53  73 /  80  70  50   0
DURANT OK         66  86  63  75 /  10  30  80  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

20/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
955 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131300-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ERICK... TO ALTUS...
TO KNOX CITY TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
STILLWATER...TO OKLAHOMA CITY...AND WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND 65 MPH WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS WELL AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AREAS TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE MODERATE RISK AREA OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS.

THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
EVENING... WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL... GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 13.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN AGAIN ON
FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BUT COULD BE
SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHWARD...DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING. STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO PROCEED SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

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