Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
921 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS
EVENING JUST SOUTH OF THE FA AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD.  WILL KEEP
HIGH POPS FOR SRN AREAS OF THE FA MUCH AS THE PREV FCST AS WK S/W
SERN NM/W TX DRIFTS SLOWLY NEWD AND INTERACTS WITH VERY MOIST AMS
AND SK SFC BNDRY FROM SERN OK INTO CNTRL TX.  WILL REORIENTATE POP
GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT EVOLUTION OF THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT...OTRW
NO OTHER SIG CHANGES.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
321 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED THAN USUAL
FOR AUGUST. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND IS SLOWLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY JUST SOUTHEAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN... DRIZZLE... AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT... AND ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. WE DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT
ENOUGH RAINFALL TO JUSTIFY A FLOOD WATCH... HOWEVER.

THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME MORE AND MORE SCATTERED... THEN ISOLATED...
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. POPS DECREASE SLOWLY AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE RAIN SUBSIDES... BUT THE WET
GROUND WILL ABSORB MUCH OF THE INSOLATION... AND DAILY HIGHS WILL
NOT BE AS WARM AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY AS DIFFERENT MODELS AND DIFFERENT RUNS OF
THE SAME MODEL DO NOT AGREE WELL. IN FACT... THERE IS ABOUT A 20-
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
ON SATURDAY. WE HAVE SIDED SLIGHTLY WITH THE ECMWF... BUT HAVE NOT
JUMPED COMPLETELY ON ITS BANDWAGON YET. SIMILARLY... POPS HAVE
BEEN ADDED... EXPANDED... AND RAISED SOMEWHAT OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  85  70  92 /  50  40  30  20
HOBART OK         68  86  70  94 /  50  40  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  69  86  72  94 /  70  50  30  20
GAGE OK           63  87  66  92 /  20  20  20  20
PONCA CITY OK     66  86  69  89 /  30  30  20  20
DURANT OK         70  87  72  93 /  70  50  30  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHERN TEXAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA WILL PRECLUDE STRONG SURFACE HEATING TODAY AND THEREBY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP. THE PRESENCE OF ONLY
MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY... ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR... WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY AUG 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...
TAPERING OFF TO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

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