Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
332 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING... WITH FLASH FLOODING
LIKELY OCCURRING IN SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE AREA. WILL ADJUST
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ADD A FEW MORE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA... WHILE REMOVING COUNTIES IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE
WATCH. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TODAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LAY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY WHILE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. MEANWHILE... WEAK
UPPER WAVES WILL LIKELY BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. THE
RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
PRECIP AREAS. REMOVED PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA FROM THE
WATCH AS RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOWER... PLUS THE REGION HAS HAD NEARLY 24 HOURS OF DRY WEATHER...
ALLOWING STREAMS TO DRAIN. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT... AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH... ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP AS STRONG OF A LOW LEVEL JET AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WEAKENS AS
DOES THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING.

IN THE LONGER TERM... STILL SOME QUESTION IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE NEXT FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ATTM... WE
WILL BRING IN SOME LOW POPS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY EARLY
FRIDAY... ALTHOUGH THE GFS TAKES ITS TIME IN BRINGING THE FRONT
INTO THE STATE. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE LATER PERIODS
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND/OR PCPN WILL ONCE AGAIN ACT TO HOLD
DOWN TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS TODAY. LINGERING CLOUDS AND PCPN
ON TUESDAY WILL STILL KEEP MANY AREAS IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY...
BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK   80 68 85 70 /70 50 40 30
HOBART OK          80 67 86 70 /80 40 40 20
WICHITA FALLS TX   84 70 87 72 /80 60 50 30
GAGE OK            78 63 89 66 /50 30 20 20
PONCA CITY OK      78 67 86 70 /60 40 30 20
DURANT OK          88 71 88 73 /80 60 50 30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ028-OKZ030-OKZ031-
     OKZ032-OKZ037-OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ040-OKZ041-OKZ042-OKZ043-OKZ044-
     OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR TXZ084-TXZ085-TXZ086-
     TXZ087-TXZ088-TXZ089-TXZ090.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-151200-

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE... HOWEVER NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST... AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SAG VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...WILL MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MONDAY AUG 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE WATCH MAY
BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT... AND ALSO MAY BE EXPANDED INTO A LARGER
PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... WITH
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND AGAIN ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
AROUND FRIDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING MAY
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
MONDAY.

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