Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

.DISCUSSION...LOTS GOING ON THIS MORNING. FIRST..ONGOING MCS OVER
NE TX PANHANDLE ACROSS NW OK HAS DUMPED ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN..WHICH HAS BROUGHT SOME MESONET 72 HR TOTALS TO NEAR 8 INCHES
IN PARTS OF WOODS/WOODWARD COUNTIES. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THRU TONIGHT THIS AREA AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN
ABOUT TO MOVE IN FROM TEXAS..AND ADDITIONAL STORMS SEEM LIKELY
TONIGHT ON COOL SIDE OF REINFORCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE ALREADY
EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU TONITE FOR NRN THIRD OF OK..AND
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.

AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NW OK IS QUITE COLD AND
ALSO APPEARS TO BE QUITE DEEP. THUS..EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO
CONTINUE TO LEAK SWD TODAY..EFFECTIVELY SHUTTING OFF ANYTHING BUT
A MARGINAL HAIL SVR THREAT TO ITS NORTH..ALONG WITH COPUIOS
AMOUNTS OF RAIN. WE BELIEVE THIS BOUNDARY TO BE TOO SHARP AND COLD
TO PROVIDE ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR A SIG TORNADO THREAT ALONG IT..EVEN
IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN INTERACT WITH IT.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN IS THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH..ON WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AREA AFFECTED BY MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SW
OK/WRN NTEXAS. OVERLAY OF ABQ/EPZ MORNING SOUNDINGS ON TOP OF
MAF/AMA SOUNDINGS STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT COOLER TEMPS ALOFT/STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD A BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS
WITH 16 G/KG MIXING RATIOS LATER TODAY AS LARGE SCALE TROF CONTS
TO DEVELOP IN A NEGATIVE TILT FASHION. SFC OBS OF W/NW WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AND COOL TEMPS ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO ALSO
SUPPORT THIS. NAM MODEL INSISTS THAT CAPE WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2-3K
J/KG..BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OBS SUGGEST CAPE WILL BE MUCH GREATER
THAN THIS..MORE ON THE ORDER OF APPROACHING 5000 IN SOME PLACES.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 KNOTS SHUD BE IN A SWEET
SPOT FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION..LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS FROM 20-
30 KTS AND RELATIVELY LOW LCL/LFC HEIGHTS THIS EVENING SHUD LEAD
TO A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT. THE TWO PRIMARY CAVEATS ARE 1)
WILL STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE OR RAPIDLY MORPH INTO A LARGE CLUSTER
AND 2) HOW FAR NORTHEAST WILL THE HIGH-END THREAT EXIST AS
INITIATION IS LIKELY TO BE TO THE W/SW OF OUN CWA. BELIEVE HIGH-
END TORNADO/HAIL/WIND THREAT IS HIGHEST SW OF ROUGHLY A
MANGUM/HOBART/WICHITA FALLS/ ARCHER CITY LINE..AND WE WILL HIT
THIS AREA HARDEST IN NOON HWO.. WITH AFOREMENTIONED CAVEATS IN
MIND.

UPDATED MORNING FORECAST THAT WAS ISSUED A LITTLE WHILE AGO ALSO
CONTAINED UPDATED GRIDS/FORECAST FOR DAYS 3-7 TIME PERIOD. MAIN
CHANGES WERE TO TO ADD POPS FOR WED-FRI TIME PERIOD FOR PERIOD OF
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING TROF..WHICH WUD
BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING MCS PROPAGATION
INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
 MILLER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 828 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005)

DISCUSSION...
QUICK UPDATE TO RE-UP FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 12Z MON MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS NORTH OF A ROUGHLY CHEYENNE TO PERRY LINE WHERE HEAVIEST
RAINS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN AND MORE IS ONE THE WAY/ALREADY OCCURRING.
IN SHORT TERM... HARPER/WOODS/WOODWARD/ELLIS COUNTIES UNDER THE
GUN AS MCS CONTS TO AFFECT THESE COUNTIES WITH TRAINING FOR MUCH
OF THIS MORNING. THE WAY THE RADAR LOOP LOOKS TO BE SETTING
UP..CUD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES JUST THIS MORNING SOME
AREAS..WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH THINGS IN A FEW AREAS INTO HIGH-END
STATUS AS SOME LOCALES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED NEARLY 7 INCHES SINCE
FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX/S/ OF STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
 MILLER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  89  68  93  67 /  40  80  20  30
HOBART OK         89  68  96  66 /  60  80  20  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  68  97  70 /  60  80  20  30
GAGE OK           84  63  90  61 /  90  80  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     87  68  91  65 /  40  80  20  20
DURANT OK         92  69  92  73 /  30  80  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY FOR OKZ004-OKZ005-OKZ006-
     OKZ007-OKZ008-OKZ009-OKZ010-OKZ011-OKZ012-OKZ013-OKZ014-
     OKZ015.

TX...NONE.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

OKZ007-008-012-013-121830-
GARFIELD OK-GRANT OK-KAY OK-NOBLE OK-
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD...GRANT...KAY AND
NOBLE COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT
105 AM. ONE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ENID... AND ANOTHER
JUST NORTH OF BILLINGS.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN GARFIELD...GRANT...KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF ENID...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...SPEG.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

OKZ007-008-012-013-121830-
GARFIELD OK-GRANT OK-KAY OK-NOBLE OK-
104 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GARFIELD...GRANT...KAY AND
NOBLE COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT
105 PM. ONE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ENID... AND ANOTHER
JUST NORTH OF BILLINGS.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN GARFIELD...GRANT...KAY AND NOBLE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF ENID...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...SPEG.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
133 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     HAIL             2 W TONKAWA             36.68N 97.35W
06/12/2005  0.88 INCH        KAY                OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTED BY WICHITA MEDIA ON I-35. RELAYED BY NWS
            WICHITA.

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
140 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             MEDFORD                 36.81N 97.73W
06/12/2005  0.75 INCH        GRANT              OK   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JPIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
156 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             1 S BILLINGS            36.52N 97.44W
06/12/2005  0.88 INCH        NOBLE              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

OKZ014-016-121930-
CUSTER OK-ROGER MILLS OK-
215 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CUSTER AND ROGER MILLS
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAMMON AT 215
PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CUSTER AND ROGER MILLS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

JAMES