Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS New York, NY

000 
WWUS41 KOKX 160715 AAC
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
215 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE TRI-STATE REGION...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. INLAND AREAS...WHERE FREEZING
RAIN REMAINS...WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN AS
THE LOW TRACKS NORTH.

CTZ009>012-NJZ003-004-NYZ071-160815-
/O.EXP.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T0700Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
215 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AND ALL RAIN IS NOW FALLING. 

$$

NYZ067-068-161400-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1400Z/
ORANGE-PUTNAM-
215 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATIONSS OF ICE LIKELY BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING. ALL
UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME COVERED WITH A LAYER OF
ICE...MAKING TRAVEL AND EVEN WALKING HAZARDOUS. THIS ICE
ACCUMULATION COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

CTZ005-006-161400-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
215 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
PLAIN RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER
THIS MORNING. ALL UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME COVERED WITH A
LAYER OF ICE...MAKING TRAVEL AND EVEN WALKING HAZARDOUS. THIS ICE
ACCUMULATION COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

NJZ002-NYZ069-070-160900-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T0900Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
215 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING. 

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
ADDITION ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ON ALL SURFACES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY 400
AM. UNTIL THEN ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH OR SO ARE EXPECTED
ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS...WHICH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

CTZ007-008-161300-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1300Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
215 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...THROUGH THE RUSH HOUR...AND CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB...RISING ABOVE FREEZING BY 800 AM.
UNTIL THEN...ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER INCH OR SO ARE EXPECTED
ON UNTREATED SURFACES...WHICH WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KOKX 160927
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
427 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...ANOTHER WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE TRI-STATE REGION...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN DELAWARE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA. INLAND AREAS...WHERE FREEZING RAIN REMAINS...WILL
TRANSITION TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH.

CTZ007-008-161030-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1300Z/
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
427 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN ABOVE THROUGH THE DAY. PLAIN RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

$$

NJZ002-NYZ069-070-161030-
/O.EXP.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T0900Z/
WESTERN PASSAIC-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
427 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

NYZ067-068-161400-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1400Z/
ORANGE-PUTNAM-
427 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE LIKELY BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN LATER THIS MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING. ALL UNTREATED
SURFACES WILL BECOME COVERED WITH A LAYER OF ICE... MAKING TRAVEL
AND EVEN WALKING HAZARDOUS. THIS ICE ACCUMULATION COULD RESULT IN
DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

CTZ005-006-161400-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
427 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING. 

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE LIKELY BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO
PLAIN RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATER
THIS MORNING. ALL UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BECOME COVERED WITH A
LAYER OF ICE...MAKING TRAVEL AND EVEN WALKING HAZARDOUS. THIS ICE
ACCUMULATION COULD RESULT IN DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AND POWER
LINES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

000 
WWUS41 KOKX 161356
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
856 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM ENDING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION...

.TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA...AND PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL RAIN.

NYZ067-068-161500-
/O.EXP.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1400Z/
ORANGE-PUTNAM-
856 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL RAIN. A FEW ICY SPOTS MAY
REMAIN ON UNTREATED AND LIGHTLY TRAVELED ROAD SURFACES THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM 
EST THIS MORNING.

$$

CTZ005-006-161500-
/O.EXP.KOKX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-051216T1400Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-
856 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA...AND
PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL RAIN. A FEW ICY SPOTS MAY
REMAIN ON UNTREATED AND LIGHTLY TRAVELED ROAD SURFACES THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM 
EST THIS MORNING. 

$$

CNJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
810 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

...A PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR
FOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE OCEAN WITH A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY
WEATHER NEARER THE COAST...

.UPDATED (NEW INFORMATION)...
UPDATED GRIDS AND WSW TO ADD STATEN ISLAND...BROOKLYN...NASSAU AND
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL HOVERING AROUND FREEZING AS THE SNOW AND SLEET HAS STARTED TO
MIX WITH RAIN. THIS IS RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN. THERE REMAINS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES DEW POINT DEPRESSION...SO TEMPERATURES IN THESE
AREAS MAY ACTUALLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO AS HEAVIER PRECIP MOVES INTO
THE REGION DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THEN...LATER IN THE
EVENING...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS RISE CONSIDERABLY AS A MILD ON-SHORE
FLOW SETS UP. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST END OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY (MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES) HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN LOWER 40S. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THESE NEW ZONES WILL RUN UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EVERYTHING
APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING AS ANTICIPATED.

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND RESULT IN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. ALL
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN DOING THIS BUT BELIEVE THEY ERODE THIS COLD
AIRMASS TOO QUICKLY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR A BIT LONGER
AND AS SUCH WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. WILL BASICALLY BE ADDING COASTAL
CONNECTICUT AND PARTS OF THE METRO AREA IN A WINTER WX ADVISORY AS A
BRIEF OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW...IS VERY POSSIBLE FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE THE MILDER AIR CAN WORK IN. WILL ALSO BE
MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING AND TYPES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR SOME OF THE OTHER AREAS IN THE CWA. PLAN ON ISSUING A NEW WSW
SHORTLY AFTER 300 PM TO REFLECT ALL THESE CHANGES. NO WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED AS ALL THE WINTRY ELEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA ALTHOUGH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA...SNOW AMOUNTS MAY COME FAIRLY CLOSE TO THIS.

SO BASICALLY WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST COURTESY OF AN ACTIVE SUB TROP JET. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LINK UP WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH IN THE POLAR
BRANCH. THIS WILL SEND THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPE OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE INTENSITY OF THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATE AT TIMES FROM VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.

THIS STORM WILL BE A FAIRLY QUICK MOVER WITH THE PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN...ALTHOUGH IT MAY
BE VERY LATE IN THE DAY OR EVEN EARLY EVENING BEFORE FAR EASTERN
CONNECTICUT SEES THIS CLEARING.

TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF MAVS AND METS THROUGH THIS NEAR
TERM.
&&

.SHORT TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT FAIR SKIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
DRY WX WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES....BUT THERE ARE SOME POTENTIAL FLIES
IN THE OINTMENT AS SOUTHERN STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE AND MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW SOME TYPICAL BIASES AS WELL AS DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE. MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON ONE LOW
TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON SUN AND MOVING OUT TO
SEA WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT...BUT ARE NOT AS CLEAR IN THEIR
HANDLING OF A SECOND LOW EITHER LATE MON NIGHT/TUE PER 12Z GFS...OR
A DAY LATER PER SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED 12Z ECMWF. GFS IN PARTICULAR
COULD BE SHOWING USUAL BIAS OF OVERDOING THE STRONG POLAR
JET/CONFLUENCE ZONE WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING MUCH OF THIS TIME...WHICH IN TURN
COULD BE SUPPRESSING THESE DEVELOPMENTS TOO FAR SOUTH.
&&

.AVIATION...
TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING P-TYPE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO
AMENDMENT AS SITUATION UNFOLDS. FOR NOW...STRATUS WITH HIGH-END MVFR
CIGS LURKING ALONG THE NJ COAST HAD SNEAKED UP INTO EWR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COULD DO THE SAME AT OTHER NYC AREA TERMINALS
SHORTLY. LIGHT SNOW IS ALREADY BREAKING OUT ACROSS EASTERN PA...SO
MAY HAVE AMEND FOR AN EARLIER START TO PRECIP AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...WHICH IN 18Z TAF WAS FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM 01Z-02Z AT
NYC AREA TERMINALS AND 03Z-06Z OUT EAST AT KISP/KGON. WARMER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WINTRY MIX AT MOST NYC AREA
TERMINALS...EXCEPT ALL RAIN AT KJFK/KISP AS WARMER AIR ALSO MOVES IN
AT THE SURFACE ON INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW. THIS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 35
KT LATE TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST...AND BRINGING IN ENOUGH WARMER AIR
TO EVENTUALLY CHANGE PRECIP TO ALL RAIN BETWEEN 04Z-06Z AT
KEWR/KLGA/KTEB. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE TO RAIN COULD BE DELAYED AT
KEWR/KTEB/KHPN IF COASTAL FRONT SETS UP AND NORTHEAST OVER-LAND
TRAJECTORY IN PLACE ATTM HANGS IN LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST LESS COMPLICATED FOR KSWF AND KGON. SURFACE TEMPS AT KSWF
WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW FREEZING ALL NIGHT...AND HAVE FORECAST SNOW
CHANGING TO A PREDOMINATELY FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX BY 06Z.
WARMER AIR WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WORK IN AT KGON BEFORE PRECIP
ARRIVES...WITH A WINTRY MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KSWF/KGON DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRI...WITH A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS ON GUSTY WEST WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASE TO GALE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND LONG ISLAND SOUND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 40 KTS. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES
NEARLY OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE STORM AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER LIFTS THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND. EXPECT WINDS FRIDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON TO REACH MARGINAL
GALE CRITERIA ON THE OCEANS AND EASTERN SOUND...AND JUST BELOW THIS
ELSEWHERE. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN NEW YORK HARBOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS COUPLED WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES DUE TO A FULL MOON WILL PUSH TIDAL DEPARTURES TO 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND THIS COULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE IS THE HIGHER OF THE TWO AND WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE SHOULD NOT CAUSE
ANY PROBLEMS.

AFTER SATURDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WATERS AND THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MEAN AREAL QPF LOOKS TO BE AROUND AN INCH FOR THIS EVENT. BASED ON
FFG AND LATEST STREAM FLOW...NOT EXPECTING PROBLEMS ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR FLS (URBAN POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING) CLOSER TO THE TIME OF THE EVENT.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CTZ009 UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CTZ010>012 UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CTZ005>008 UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NJZ002 UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NJZ003-004 UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NJZ005-006-011 UNTIL MIDNIGHT
     FRIDAY.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ067-068 UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ069-070 UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ071 UNTIL 2 AM FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYZ072>078 UNTIL MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ330-353-355 FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 1 PM
     FRIDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ335 FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ338 UNTIL 11 PM FRIDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ350 FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM FRIDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

NJZ005-006-011-NYZ072-073-076-161100-
ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-QUEENS-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 700 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FOR A WINTRY MIX. SEE THE WSW FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

CTZ009-NJZ003-004-NYZ071-161100-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 700 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
FOR A WINTRY MIX. SEE THE WSW FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

NJZ002-NYZ069-070-161100-
WESTERN PASSAIC-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 700 PM UNTIL 400 AM FOR
A WINTRY MIX. SEE THE WSW FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

NYZ067-068-161100-
ORANGE-PUTNAM-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 700 PM ONWARD FOR A
WINTRY MIX. SEE THE WSW FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
900 AM FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

CTZ005>008-161100-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 900 PM ONWARD FOR A
WINTRY MIX. SEE THE WSW FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 AM FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

CTZ010>012-161100-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 900 PM UNTIL 200 AM FOR
A WINTRY MIX. SEE THE WSW FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEEDED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

NYZ074-075-077>081-161100-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NASSAU-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ350-353-355-161100-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ330-335-161100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A GALE WARNING WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

ANZ338-161100-
NEW YORK HARBOR-
418 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL AROUND
MIDDAY FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.