Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS New York, NY

000 
WGUS71 KOKX 142111
FFSOKX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
511 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

NYC071-142121-
ORANGE NY-
511 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE COUNTY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE HEAVY RAINS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ENDED OVER THE 
WARNED AREA. IF ANY FLOODING WAS OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4149 7478 4134 7472 4124 7450 4137 7427
      4161 7435

$$

REYNOLDS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
148 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)...AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL GO OUT EARLIER
THAN USUAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 720. SOME CELLS HAVE
ALREADY POPPED UP NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS EXPECTED...AND THESE
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ALREADY QUITE UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPE 4500 J/KG
AND MLCAPE 3500 J/KG NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
PRESENT TO PRESENT THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
FROM BOWING SEGMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS. WBZ HEIGHTS NEAR 13 KFT BUT
DECENT CAPE BETWEEN -20C AND -30 C AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST
LARGE HAIL COULD STILL BE A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. MAIN
THREAT EARLY ON WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC...BUT STORMS COULD
ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF MAIN ACTIVITY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
ACROSS FROM NYC UP INTO SOUTHWEST CT...AND ALSO ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND THREAT OF SEVERE WX WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING...THEN TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING. AM NOT EXPECTING
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE BEYOND THEN AS FOCUS OF DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

SINCE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED WITH FLOW ALOFT...HAVE SLOWED DOWN ITS
FORWARD PROGRESS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. NAM HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE
ON THIS THAN THE GFS...BUT 12Z GFS IS AT LEAST TRENDING TOWARD
SLOWER FROPA. THIS WILL AFFECT MAINLY WIND AND DEWPOINT
FORECAST...KEEPING SW FLOW AND 70+ DEWPOINTS IN A LITTLE LONGER
THROUGH AT LEAST MON MORNING. CHC POPS REMAIN IN THE FCST MAINLY
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO TAKE HOLD
MON AFTERNOON AS FRONT SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
&&

.SHORT TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FAIR WX WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
KEEP WAVE OF LOW PRES FROM BRINGING PRECIP TO THE AREA...THOUGH
GRIDS DO DEPICT MORE CLOUD COVER. WED COULD END UP BEING WARMER THAN
FORECAST AS H8 TEMPS RECOVER TO +14C...HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
COOLER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MEX+2 FOR NOW. &&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WITH CONCENTRATION ON
NEAR TERM HEAT/SEVERE WX HAZARDS HAVE GONE WITH STRAIGHT HPC
GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...COMING SOON.
&&

.MARINE...COMING SOON.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN PLACE.
&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM ALL ZONES.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...NYZ072>077.
     SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM ALL ZONES.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...NJZ003>006-011.
     SEVERE TSTM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM ALL ZONES.
MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN...ANZ350-353-355.

&&

GOODMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
421 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

NJZ003>006-011-NYZ072>077-150900-
BERGEN NJ-BRONX NY-EASTERN PASSAIC NJ-ESSEX NJ-HUDSON NJ-
KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY-NASSAU NY-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) NY-QUEENS NY-
RICHMOND (STATEN IS.) NY-UNION NJ-
421 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 105 TO 110.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE MAJOR THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-NYZ067>071-078>081-150900-
NORTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-NORTHERN NEW LONDON CT-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
NORTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-ORANGE NY-PUTNAM NY-ROCKLAND NY-
SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK NY-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX CT-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN CT-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON CT-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER NY-
SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK NY-WESTERN PASSAIC NJ-
421 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE MAJOR THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 100.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ330-335-338-350-353-355-150900-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-NEW YORK HARBOR-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
421 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE MAJOR THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS AND LOWERED VISIBILITIES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

INCREASED SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM IRENE CAN BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

MPS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

CTZ005-NYZ068>070-141845-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
138 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

AT 136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM YORKTOWN HEIGHTS TO NEW CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL.

REYNOLDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

NYZ067-141845-
ORANGE-
140 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

AT 142 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OTISVILLE TO 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAWLEY...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR FINCHVILLE BY 145 PM EDT.
  NEAR BULLVILLE BY 220 PM EDT.
  NEAR PORT JERVIS BY 245 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

REYNOLDS