Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Nashville, TN

000 
WWUS54 KOHX 220214
SVSOHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
913 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

TNC181-220245-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-050422T0245Z/
WAYNE TN-
913 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 945 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY...

AT 907 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF WAYNESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WAYNESBORO BY 935 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3536 8803 3519 8803 3504 8762 3542 8763

$$

31

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
845 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...THEN RUNS BACK UP NORTH OF SAINT LOUIS.
OTHER BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LARGE TEMP
DIFFERENCE ACROSS KY BOUNDARY WITH 70 DEGS AT RUSSELL SPRINGS
KENTUCKY AND 57 DEGS AT LEXINGTON. OHX DOPPLER SHOWING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN MID STATE THIS EVENING. MEMPHIS DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWING MORE ORGAINIZED CONVECTION WORKING GENERALLY EAST
THROUGH WESTERN TN AT 01Z WITH MORE STORMS BACK IN EASTERN ARKANSAS.
LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH WESTERN TN WILL TRY AND GET
INTO BENTON COUNTY BY 900 PM CDT AND STEWART BY 930 PM. ALSO
ISOLATED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TN. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
THE ONES CURRENTLY HEADED FOR BENTON AND STEWART COUNTIES.

00Z BNA RAOB SHOWS A RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE BUT A WEAK
WIND FIELD AND WEAK WIND SHEAR. THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO GENERATING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
IN ISOLATED CELLS. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION REFIRING
ACROSS MISSOURI BETWEEN SAINT LOUIS AND KANSAS CITY. THIS ACTIVITY
COULD MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE MID STATE LATER TONIGHT. IF THIS HAPPENS
MID-WATCH COULD GET BUSY IN A HURRY.

WILL UPDATE ZONES AROUND 9 PM TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND MAKE
TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WILL ALSO MENTION ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREAT.

THE FOLLOWING DATA WAS PROCESSED FROM THE OHX SOUNDING 00Z 04/22/05

                      BNA
STABILITY
VIL OF THE DAY        37
500 MB TEMP:         -14.1
400 MB TEMP:         -26.3

SHOWALTER-INDEX        00
TROPOPAUSE (MB)       191

JJ GEORGES K-INDEX    32

LAPSE RATE (DEGC/KM)
700 TO 500 MB         6.4

MILLERS TOTAL TOTALS  50
     VERTICAL TOTALS  28
        CROSS TOTALS  22

THICKNESSES (METERS)
1000 TO 925            681
1000 TO 850 (1300)    1405
1000 TO 700 (2840)    3010
1000 TO 500 (5400)    5646
 850 TO 700 (1540)    1605

          700MB TEMP  2.8
          700MB WIND  325/17

MEAN WIND (DEGS/KTS)
SURFACE TO  5000 FT   280/06
5000 FT TO 10000 FT   310/09

HEIGHT (KFT MSL)
-20 ISOTHERM          21.4

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BOYD
01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
434 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-221030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
434 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 AFTER MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...
AND A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE NEEDED
ON FRIDAY.

BOYD
01

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
307 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-220900-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
307 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...
...FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...

WARM WEATHER THAT HAS AFFECTED THE MID STATE THIS WEEK WILL COME TO A
STORMY END LATE FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ON SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY THE 50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN MORE CHILLY. SATURDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND SOME AREAS COULD FALL BELOW
FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. PLANS SHOULD BE MADE TO PROTECT ANY
VEGETATION THAT COULD BE DAMAGED BY THE COLD CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.

13