Severe Thunderstorm Warning 278, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
319 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE MID STATE
AT THE MOMENT, WITH SOME LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE REPORTED OUT OF
LEBANON SHORTLY BEFORE 20Z. AT 19Z, THE SURFACE MAP SHOWED A LOW
CENTERED NEAR SPRINGFIELD, MISSOURI, WITH A WARM FRONT RUNNING NORTH
OF THE OHIO VALLEY, AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
LOW THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LATEST MODEL CYCLES INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE MID
STATE BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z TOMORROW.

MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS FIELDS DONT SHOW MUCH CATALYST FOR ANY ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELDS DO INDICATE A DEFINITE
COUPLET OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ADDED TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL OUT THERE, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS JUST ABOUT ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH 12Z TOMORROW.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WE RETURN TO MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER UNDER BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE. THE GFS MODEL BRINGS THE NEXT FRONT THROUGH THE MID STATE
NEXT TUESDAY EVENING, BUT AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANCE OF ACTIVE
WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    68  82  59  80 /  50  30  10  10
CLARKSVILLE  67  80  59  80 /  50  20  10  10
CROSSVILLE   64  80  55  76 /  40  40  10  10
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-161030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE LOWER PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BRING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING MIDSTATE
WEATHER PATTERNS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
221 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NASHVILLE               36.17N 86.78W
09/15/2005                   DAVIDSON           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE.

&&

STEIGERWALDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 PM CDT THU SEP 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             2 E LEBANON             36.21N 86.29W
09/15/2005  0.88 INCH        WILSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STEIGERWALDT