Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
300 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING LL FRONTAL BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHERN
OH VALLEY DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
ALSO SHOWING UP JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AIRMASS NEAR/ABOVE H8
LITTLE DRIER TODAY ON 12Z RAOB THUS DESPITE WEAK UL TROF TROUGH
OVER THE VICINITY...CONVECTION MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN YESTERDAY.

LL FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT
BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA. THERE SEEMS TO
BE SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL COME ON MONDAY BUT ALL MODELS
ARE SHOWING AN AFTERNOON WIND SHIFT NORTH. THIS MAY BE RESULT OF
VERY WEAK PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THERE IS LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPS/DEWS.

WEAK WAVE ALONG THE FRONT PROGGED TO BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...PULLING MAIN BOUNDARY BACK NORTH SOME MONDAY
NIGHT.

CWA WILL REMAIN IN WARM/UNSTABLE SECTOR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AND WITH FRONT MEANDERING IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY...WILL CONTINUE
COMBO OF CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGHOUT...LEANING HIGHER POPS
NORTHWEST.

ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS A DECENT PUSH
SOUTHWARD FROM SHORTWAVE TURNING ML/UL FLOW MORE NORTHWEST. A
GOOD AMOUNT OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COLLECT ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOUNDARY/UL SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO/OVER THE CWA. THUS...HAVE
UPPED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    73  93  73  89 /  30  40  40  50
CLARKSVILLE  73  91  71  88 /  40  40  40  50
CROSSVILLE   67  86  68  83 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
STRONG HEATING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD MOVE SOUTH FROM
BROADER CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIES NORTH OF A LINE FROM CELINA...TO
NASHVILLE...TO A CAMDEN LINE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE NECESSARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

04

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
718 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N MOUNT JULIET        36.26N 86.52W
08/14/2005                   WILSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN NEAR CEDAR CREEK ON OLD HICKORY LAKE

&&

31