Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
140 PM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE
EXPECT TO BE BUSY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY MONITORING STORMS AND
POSSIBLY ISSUING A FEW WARNINGS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS. MAIN
POTENTIAL WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS.
MAJORITY OF STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS AL/FL AREA AND A
POORLY DEFINED...DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REMAINED JUST TO OUR NORTH.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE
MOIST IN MID LEVELS THAN IT HAS BEEN...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDINESS
AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...BUT A LITTLE LESS SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY TIME THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...BUT PRIMARILY HEAT DRIVEN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE HELD BELOW 90
IN MANY AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS.

APPEARS THAT THROUGH AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT AWAY
FROM THE AREA MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN LATE WEEK WITH
MS/PC SKIES. NOT SURE THERE WILL BE STORMS EVERY DAY LATE WEEK...BUT
THIS TIME OF YEAR IT IS PRETTY SAFE TO FORECAST ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    70  88  70  87 /  30  50  30  50
CLARKSVILLE  70  89  69  88 /  30  50  30  40
CROSSVILLE   67  83  65  82 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
845 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-071030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
845 AM CDT SAT AUG 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM STALLS OVER THE REGION AND DISSIPATES. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE PRIMARILY DURING THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
BECAUSE OF THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE STORMS...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MAG