Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
907 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...
13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT STILL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST THROUGH
OHIO, SOUTHERN INDIANA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, ACROSS THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI, AND INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WAS LOCATED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS COVERING MOST
OF THE CENTRAL U.S. ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AT 9
AM THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY IN THE 80S WHILE DEW
POINTS REMAINED IN THE LOWER 70S. NO HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY
AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...
MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST REACHING
NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE SHORTLY AFTER NOON. EXPECT MUCH NEEDED
RAIN TO SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE A LITTLE DISAPPOINTING AS
HPC QPF INDICATE TOTALS WILL LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WILL UPDATE CURRENT ZFP TO CHANGE WORDING IN FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY OVER THE MID STATE.  A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGE FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WINDS ALONG WITH LOCALIZE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THIS THURSDAY AND NEXT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THERE WILL BE A 20
TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BUT...WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT EXPECTED.

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1158 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

TNZ007-008-027-271745-
DAVIDSON-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-
1158 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WAS MOVING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN ROBERTSON
COUNTY AND NORTHWEST DAVIDSON COUNTY NEAR JOELTON. THIS
STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH AND WILL BE APPROACHING OLD
HICKORY...GOODLETTSVILLE AND THE HENDERSONVILLE AREA BETWEEN 1230
TO 1245 PM.

END/ORCHANIAN