Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
305 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS WORKED US OVER...AND NOW IT IS
READY TO RUMBLE AGAIN. STORMS WERE CONTINUING ACROSS NORTH MID TN
TO THE PLATEAU...AND THE NEXT BATCH WAS MOVING ACROSS WEST KY TOWARD
MID TN EARLY THIS MORNING. ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION REMAINS WARM
AND MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. APPROACH OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SPELLS MORE TROUBLE FOR THE MID STATE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME SEVERE.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AND CHAOTIC AS
NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING KEEP CONVECTION GOING.

DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDING ALSO SHOW LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
LOCAL SCALE SRH. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY.

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DRY WX FOR
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY WX AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATEST GFS
MODEL BRINGS NEXT RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE    81  61  80  57 /  80  10  10  10
CLARKSVILLE  79  59  81  57 /  70  10  10  10
CROSSVILLE   73  55  75  53 / 100  20  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-211030-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF
WHICH MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED
TODAY.

19

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

TNZ032-033-200540-
OVERTON-PUTNAM-
1211 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN OVERTON COUNTY THROUGH 1240 AM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

END/ORCHANIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

TNZ066-200615-
CUMBERLAND-
1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY THROUGH 1:15 AM CDT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR CAN ALSO OCCUR. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN DUE TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROAD WAYS TO
AVOID HYDROPLANING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

END/ORCHANIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
159 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

TNZ066-200730-
CUMBERLAND-
159 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 2 AM CDT...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING PEA SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY THROUGH 1:15 AM CDT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF ABOUT
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH PER HOUR CAN ALSO OCCUR. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN DUE TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROAD WAYS TO
AVOID HYDROPLANING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

END/ORCHANIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
207 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

TNZ007-008-026>029-200800-
CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-WILSON-
207 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 AM CDT...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH ROBERTSON AND SUMNER
COUNTIES. THESE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND
AFFECT CHEATHAM...DAVIDSON...WILSON AND TROUSDALE COUNTIES BY
3 AM CDT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF ABOUT A HALF INCH PER HOUR CAN ALSO OCCUR.
MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN DUE TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROAD WAYS TO
AVOID HYDROPLANING.

END/ORCHANIAN