Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
200 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGHT THE AREA...WITH SIMILAR
SITUATION FOR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE SHORT TERM...OUTFLOW BOUNDRY FROM MORNING CONVECTION HAS
SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
OMAHA AND LINCOLN EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL IOWA.
18Z SATELLITE IMAGE AND LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS CONVECTION CONFINED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IOWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING GOOD TEMPERATURES CONTRAST
AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDRY WITH MAIN QUESTION BEING
WHETHER BOUNDRY WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
FORCING TO OVERCOME ANY CAPPING IN PLACE. BETTER 850 MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE NEW CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING.

NONETHELESS...WITH MAIN FRONT FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
WITH MODELS INDICATING MAIN ACTION ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA DURING THIS TIME. OVERALL ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE SHORTTERM
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONE DIFFERENCE TO NOTE BETWEEN THE
NAM AND GFS FOR MONDAY IS TIMING OF SHORT WAVE THAT COMES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND BETTER MOISTURE THAT NAM HANGS ON TO DURING THIS
TIME. FOR NOW HAVE FOLLOWED DRIER GFS SOLUTION.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED ALSO...BUT DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY FOR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA AS EXTENDED MODELS (GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN) ALL
INDICATE FAIRLY SHARP WAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
507 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

IAZ043-055-056-069-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-251000-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
HARRISON IA-KNOX-MADISON-MONONA IA-PIERCE-PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-
SARPY-SAUNDERS-SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
507 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS...A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A FREMONT TO SIOUX CITY LINE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE
AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING.

IAZ079-080-090-091-NEZ065>068-078-088>093-251000-
CASS-FREMONT IA-GAGE-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LANCASTER-MILLS IA-
MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SEWARD-
507 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIERED LATE TONIGHT.

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
633 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

IAC155-NEC023-055-153-155-250030-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELED TORNADO WATCH 814 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN IOWA THIS CANCELS 1 COUNTY

IN SOUTHWEST IOWA

POTTAWATTAMIE

IN NEBRASKA THIS CANCELS 4 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA

BUTLER                DOUGLAS               SARPY
SAUNDERS

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BELLEVUE...COUNCIL BLUFFS...
DAVID CITY...OMAHA AND WAHOO.

IAC085-133-165-NEC003-011-021-027-037-039-053-107-119-139-141-167-
173-177-179-250400-

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 814 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING AREAS

IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST IOWA

HARRISON              SHELBY

IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA

MONONA

IN NEBRASKA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA

BURT                  DODGE                 WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

ANTELOPE              BOONE                 CEDAR
COLFAX                CUMING                KNOX
MADISON               PIERCE                PLATTE
STANTON               THURSTON              WAYNE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALBION...BLAIR...BLOOMFIELD...
COLUMBUS...FREMONT...HARLAN...HARTINGTON...MISSOURI VALLEY...
NELIGH...NORFOLK...ONAWA...PENDER...PIERCE...SCHUYLER...STANTON...
TEKAMAH...WAYNE AND WEST POINT.

JP

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