Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
725 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...
DID AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO ADJUST THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
POPS AND CLOUDS JUST A BIT. ALSO REARRANGED THE ZONE GROUPINGS
SLIGHTLY AND PULLED THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE PLATTE
RIVER THROUGH SAUNDERS...DOUGLAS AND SARPY COUNTIES SOUTHWARD.

IN LOOKS LIKE THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE FIRING
ON THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO A REGION WHERE
A STRONGER CAP EXISTS. IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP A
COUPLE OF COUNTIES YET THIS EVENING...MAINLY BOONE AND PLATTE.
STORMS TO OUR WEST HAVE REMAINED QUITE STRONG THIS EVENING WITH
SMALL HAIL REPORTED. LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE GUSTY UNDER THE STORMS
AS WELL WITH SOME 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT SPREADS AND DRIER AIR AS NOTED
ON KLBF SOUNDING. OTHERWISE...WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR STORMS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SOURCE REGION COMING OUT OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IF THEY DEVELOP THIS FAR SOUTH AT ALL.

DEWALD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

351 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2005

FORECAST PROBLEMS TODAY INCLUDE CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH JUST CLIPPING THE NERN CORNER OF
NE...AND STRETCHING UP TO THE TWIN CITIES AREA.  WV IMAGERY SHOWED
THE RIDGE IN THE WRN US CONTINUING TO BUILD...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PRODUCING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL IDAHO.  WE CONTINUE
IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A CU FIELD DEVELOPING
OVER NCNTRL NE.  WITH CAP IN PLACE OVER NERN NEBRASKA AM NOT
CURRENTLY CONCERNED ABOUT IT MOVING EAST INTO OUR CWA...BUT WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS
NERN NE AND INTO NW IA.  MOISTURE IS STILL PRETTY LACKING AS THE
GULF REMAINS CLOSED.  HOWEVER A LOOK AT BOTH THE NAM AND GFS 315K
ISOSURFACE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING AFTER
03Z...WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASING AS WELL...AND
THIS CONTINUING TO AROUND 18Z FRIDAY.  THE LLVL JET IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA BY 18Z SO IT MAY HELP IN KEEPING THESE
SHOWERS LINGERING THRU THE MORNING UNTIL CUT OFF BY AN INCREASING
CAP.  THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO 03Z TO
18Z FRIDAY.

FROM TOMORROW ONWARD THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS MINIMAL.
WHILE THE LLVL JET WILL BE NOSING INTO THE AREA FRI THRU SAT
NIGHT...MOISTURE IS STILL QUITE LACKING SO LEFT DRY ATTM.  THE
MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THRU WEDNESDAY WITH VARIOUS SHRTWVS MOVING THRU...BUT UNTIL
TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF PRECIP IN
AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST.  HOWEVER DID COOL THINGS DOWN A
LITTLE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY IN NERN NEBRASKA NORTH OF THE FRONT
EXPECTED TO HANG UP IN THE AREA.  OTHERWISE LEFT GOING FORECAST OF
TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE PD TO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

ADAMS

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

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