Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN.

...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT/TUESDAY...12Z UA ANLYS SHOWED A MID LVL
TROPICAL MOIST BAND EXTENDING ACROSS ERN NEBRASKA WITH AN 8 DEG DWPT
AT 700 MB HERE AT 0AX. IN ADDITION A SMALL SHORTWV TROF WAS APPARENT
ON STLT LIFTING NEWD INTO ERN NEBR AS OF 19Z. THESE FTRS HAVE HELP
SUSTAIN CONVECTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON...THUS FAR ELEVATED THRU
1930Z. INCREASING LOW LVL CONVERGENCE BTWN HOT UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR
SRN CWA AND OUTFLOW FM CONVECTION MAY HELP STRENGTHEN ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION SLOW MOVING CDFNT WAS JUST ENTERING EXTREME NWRN CWA AS OF
1915Z. THIS BOUNDARY AND 2ND SHRTWV TROF PUSHING TWD NCNTRL NEBRASKA
COULD TOUCH OFF ADDITIONAL TSTMS IN NERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE CONTD TO BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE ACRS THAT AREA
ALSO.  WL KEEP SVR MENTION MUCH OF THE ECNTRL/NERN ZONES THIS
EVENING AS 12Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED AN INVERTED V NATURE.  FLOW WAS
TURNING UPSLOPE ACRS NEBR PNHDL AND SOME CONVECTION WAS DVLPG
UNDERNEATH THE 2ND WAVE IN NEBR SANDHILLS. BOTH NAM AND GFS HAVE
CONTD TREND OF DVLPG AN MCS THERE THIS EVENING AND RACING IT EWD
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ACTIVITY COULD BE THE PRECURSOR TO THIS OR
ADDITIONAL DVLPMNT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING...IN ANY EVENT WL
INCREASE POPS NRN ZONES AFT 06Z AS WELL.

IT APPEARS CONVECTION TNGT WL REINFORCE WARM FRONT OVER SERN NEBR
THRU TUE AFTN DESPITE STRONGER UPR TROF CAUSING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVR
NERN WY BY 00Z WED. INTRODUCED POPS A LARGE PART OF THE CWA AS NAM
KEPT GENERATING PCPN SWD OVR FAR ERN ZONES AND BOTH GFS AND NAM
INDICATED INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CONDS N OF THE BOUNDARY TUE AFTN.
LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES N OF THE BOUNDARY AND RAISED THEM A
TOUCH TO THE S.

TUE NGT-THURSDAY...STRONGER SHRTWV TROF STILL FCST TO TRACK ACRS THE
NRN PLAINS WED. NAM SOLUTION WITH NEXT FRONT ASSOCD WITH THIS
FEATURE HAS FLIPPED TO IT NOW BEING FASTER THAN THE GFS.  ECMWF HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A SLOWER FROPA...GENERALLY ENTERING SERN
ZONES BY 00Z THU. GFS SUPPORTS THIS TO SOME DEGREE AND WL BE
FOLLOWED WITH WIND FCST AND HIGHS...WHICH WERE KEPT SSW LONGER AND
BUMPED UP ACRS THE SE RESPECTIVELY.  WL CONT POPS THRU WED NGT AS
SOME 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS LAGS THE SFC FRONT AND MUCH OF THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE CLEANED OUT BY FRONT.  IGNORED FOR NOW THE
QPF GENERATED BY THE NAM FOR THU AND LEFT THAT PD DRY WITH COOLER
TEMPS.

EXTENDED DAYS 4-7...LITTLE CHANGE MADE FM PREV FCST. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE HEAT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK TO
NORMAL AND ABOVE BY NEXT WEEKEND. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY WITH RETURN
LOW LVL JET/MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SINCE UPR HGTS SEEM
TO BE BUILDING DURING THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...PRBLY WOULDNT TAKE TOO
MUCH OF A WAVE ROLLING ACROSS PLAINS DURING THAT TIME TO GENERATE
PCPN.  A STRONGER SHORTWV STILL ADVERTISED BY 06Z/12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF TO TRACK ACRS SCNTRL CANADA WHICH COULD ALLOW A CDFNT TO MOVE
INTO THE CWA SUNDAY. THUS WL CONT POPS FM SAT NGT THRU SUN NIGHT AND
LEAVE DAY 7 DRY FOR NOW.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

&&

CHERMOK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
155 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

IAZ043-055-056-069-280200-

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA
     MONONA

IN SOUTHWEST IOWA
     HARRISON...SHELBY AND POTTAWATTAMIE

DEWALD