Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE WX POTENTIAL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALSO
CHALLENGING.

LATEST SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO BE QUITE COMPLICATED
WITH MAIN WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS FAR NRN KS WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO NWRN MO. ANOTHER BOUNDARY IS SITTING ACROSS
FAR SRN NEB AND STORMS ARE FIRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEB NOW. STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ACROSS WARM FRONT IN NERN
KS AND ALONG OUTFLOW ACROSS NWRN MO. THIS ONGOING CONVECTION HAS
KEPT MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS FROM REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS LIMITING OUR INSTABILITY AND KEEPING STRONG
CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH.  AS WAS EXPECTED...WE HAVE SEEN A LULL IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DRY
SLOT HAS WORKED INTO THE AREA AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z NAM. A FEW
JUNKY STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SWRN IA...BUT MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINS DRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC LOW PRES CENTER OVER ERN CO WL SLIDE INTO ERN KS OVERNIGHT WITH
INVERTED TROF MOVING THROUGH CNTRL NEB JUST AS LLJ INCREASES. EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT...WL HANG ON TO FLOOD WATCH
FOR ONLY SWRN IA COUNTIES AND ALSO A FEW IN EXTREME NERN NEB. THE
WATCH AREA COVERS THOSE COUNTIES THAT HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINS LAST
NIGHT AND THUS ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS NEAR OR LESS THAN 1
INCH. STILL FEEL THAT HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST
AREA...HOWEVER THOSE AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL LAST NIGHT
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE AN INCH OR SO OVERNIGHT WITHOUT MUCH
FLOODING CONCERN.

SHOULD SEE QUITE A GRADIENT IN TEMPS TOMORROW...SIMILAR TO
TODAYS...AS THE SFC BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY SEWD. PCPN SHOULD FOCUS
ALONG THIS INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WL END PCPN FROM NW TO SE BY
EARLY FRIDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND AND WL
SEE DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TO
HELP RADIATE OUT. SFC HIGH PUSHES EAST LATE SUNDAY SETTING US UP FOR
RETURN FLOW AND A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND WL GO
WITH NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW SETS UP BY MID WEEK AND WL GO WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR DAY 7.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...FLOOD WATCH THURSTON...WAYNE...CUMING...BURT AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES THRU 9AM THU.
IA...FLOOD WATCH ALL OAX IA COUNTIES THRU 9AM THU.

&&

GRIFFIS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
403 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

NEZ030-031-042-043-050-065-078-088-089-120500-
BOONE-BUTLER-COLFAX-GAGE-JEFFERSON-MADISON-PLATTE-SALINE-SEWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...BEATRICE...CLARKSON...COLUMBUS...
CRETE...DAVID CITY...FAIRBURY...NORFOLK...SEWARD
403 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 252 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 252 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA.

IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THE WATCH INCLUDES...

GAGE...SALINE...SEWARD...BUTLER...COLFAX...PLATTE...BOONE...MADISON

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BOUSTEAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...COR TO ADD JEFFERSON CO IN TEXT.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
403 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

NEZ030-031-042-043-050-065-078-088-089-120500-
BOONE-BUTLER-COLFAX-GAGE-JEFFERSON-MADISON-PLATTE-SALINE-SEWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...BEATRICE...CLARKSON...COLUMBUS...
CRETE...DAVID CITY...FAIRBURY...NORFOLK...SEWARD
403 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 252 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 252 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA.

IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THE WATCH INCLUDES...

JEFFERSON...GAGE...SALINE...SEWARD...BUTLER...COLFAX...PLATTE...BOONE
...MADISON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

BOUSTEAD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

NEZ090>093-120700-
JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...FALLS CITY...PAWNEE CITY...
TECUMSEH
642 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 254 HAS BEEN ISSUED AND WILL BE
IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
    JOHNSON...NEMAHA...PAWNEE AND RICHARDSON

DEWALD