Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 170031
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
630 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2005

MTC061-170040-
/O.CAN.KMSO.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-050717T0045Z/
MINERAL-
630 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MINERAL COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS DECREASED AND 
IS NO LONGER SEVERE. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS 
BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...WINDS UP TO 35 MPH MAY BE SEEN AT THE 
ONSET OF THIS STORM AS IT TRAVELS INTO WESTERN MISSOULA. 

LAT...LON 4706 11456 4706 11448 4702 11446 4702 11442
      4699 11444 4700 11452 4695 11458 4677 11456
      4685 11485 4715 11466

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
531 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.UPDATE...RAIN HAS DECREASED WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND
FLATHEAD LAKE. THEREFORE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET AND TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST TO WARNING CRITERIA. THESE
WINDS ARE MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...HOWEVER WITH CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND THE AREA THESE WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS. THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH
WIND WARNING FOR ALL OF LEMHI COUNTY. ONCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
PASSES THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE WINDS WILL DECREASE. WILL
MONITOR IN CASE THIS DOES NOT OCCUR BY 7 PM LIKE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWED DOWN MIDDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP AS
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM WASHINGTON STATE/B.C BORDER
KICKS THROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP FIRE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...THROUGH HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WITH STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN WAKE OF
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND FRONT...SO LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE
ONLY UNTIL EARLY EVENING AS WIND FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND
WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD FOR SUNDAY...BUT MAY BE
KNOCKED DOWN BY JETSTREAM MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN COAST WITH
UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA...SO WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE WARMING AND DRYING TREND
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE INLAND NORTHWEST WILL BE BETWEEN
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT WILL PASS THROUGH WESTERN
CANADA AND A RELATIVELY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MOST OF CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OVER
NORTHWEST MONTANA NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS OVER WESTERN CANADA AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING THURSDAY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF LEMHI COUNTY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAINS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN MONTANA
AND CENTRAL IDAHO AS CONVECTION AT LOWER LEVELS HAS MIXED DOWN STRONG
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE AREA
UNDER THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY MOUNTAINS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS WILL CALM OVER THE AREA AFTER
SUNDOWN WHEN SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.

ID...HIGH WIND WARNING IDZ009-010 UNTIL 7 PM.
&&

UPDATE...MEAD
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION....SIGLER/STEGEMILLER
AVIATION...MEAD
weather.gov/missoula