Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Missoula, MT

August 10, 2005Lake County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 10, 2005, 8:19 PM MDT for Lake County, Montana. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 10, 2005, 8:19 PM MDT (02:19 UTC)
Expired: Aug 10, 2005, 8:45 PM MDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Lake County, MT

The radar

The Missoula radar (KMSX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 13 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -75 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3300 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 47 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS55 KMSO 110218
SVRMSO
MTC047-110245-
/O.NEW.KMSO.SV.W.0023.050811T0219Z-050811T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
819 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA

* UNTIL 845 PM MDT

* AT 816 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF SWAN LAKE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  POLSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SWAN LAKE BY 845 PM MDT

LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...GO INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL PROTECTED AREA.

LAT...LON 4789 11415 4777 11410 4786 11375 4803 11391

$$

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 110244
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
845 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

MTC047-110255-
/O.EXP.KMSO.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-050811T0245Z/
LAKE MT-
845 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 845 PM MDT...

LAT...LON 4789 11415 4777 11410 4786 11375 4803 11391

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 10, 2:30 PM MDT, 5 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 10, 2:30 PM MDT, 5 hours 49 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
230 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION ACROSS
LEMHI COUNTY/SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST MONTANA WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. MUCH COOLER AIR POISED ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE DIVIDE NEAR GLACIER WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONCE THE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES..NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD START PUSHING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
DIVIDE. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG PUSH. A WEAK CANADIAN
SHORT-WAVE FEATURE WILL SAG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MONTANA LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A MUCH STRONG PUSH..DRAWING
COOLER MOIST AIR FAR SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH WILL BE
REDIRECTED INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. BREEZY NORTH TO EAST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS COOLER AIR MASS THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPACTING MUCH OF
WESTERN MONTANA. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA...BUT IN A REDUCED MODE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN CHALLENGES FOR
LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH COMING IN LATER THIS WEEK IS
NOW MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED...SO HAVE DECREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHAT DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
WAIVER. INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK AS MODELS IN LINE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. DUE TO MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES AT EARLIER TIME FRAMES...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACT TO AVIATION EXPECTED...SEE
APPROPRIATE TAFS AND TWEBS.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MSJ
LONG TERM....STEGEMILLER
AVIATION...MSJ

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 10, 4:06 PM MDT, 4 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
406 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     HAIL             3 N KALISPELL           48.24N 114.31W
08/10/2005  0.75 INCH        FLATHEAD           MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMITH

Local storm report, Aug 10, 4:45 PM MDT, 3 hours 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
445 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             MELROSE                 45.63N 112.68W
08/10/2005  1.00 INCH        SILVER BOW         MT   PUBLIC

&&

SMITH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 10, 6:34 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Flathead	41 min
Aug 10, 7:17 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Flathead	27 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.