Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 101411
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
810 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

MTC023-101445-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-050810T1445Z/
DEER LODGE MT-
810 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 845 AM MDT FOR
SOUTHERN DEER LODGE COUNTY...

AT 806 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. NEAR FISHTRAP...OR ABOUT 25 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF ANACONDA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A 
HISTORY OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FISHTRAP BY 815 AM MDT

LAT...LON 4593 11348 4597 11346 4610 11285 4608 11281
      4600 11287 4598 11295 4592 11293 4588 11299
      4589 11314 4581 11329 4579 11341

$$

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 101435
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
833 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

MTC023-101445-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-050810T1445Z/
DEER LODGE MT-
833 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 845 AM MDT FOR
SOUTHERN DEER LODGE COUNTY...

AT 832 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF FISHTRAP...OR 
ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF ANACONDA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THE MAIN 
CORE OF THIS STORM HAS EXITED THE COUNTY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE 
STORM WILL BE OUT OF THE COUNTY BY 845 AM MDT.

LAT...LON 4593 11348 4597 11346 4610 11285 4608 11281
      4600 11287 4598 11295 4592 11293 4588 11299
      4589 11314 4581 11329 4579 11341

$$

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 101449
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
848 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

MTC023-101458-
/O.EXP.KMSO.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-050810T1445Z/
DEER LODGE MT-
848 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN DEER LODGE COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 845 AM MDT...

LAT...LON 4593 11348 4597 11346 4610 11285 4608 11281
      4600 11287 4598 11295 4592 11293 4588 11299
      4589 11314 4581 11329 4579 11341

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
250 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

.SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET STREAM
MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT LITTLE...IF
ANY...MEASUREABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MODEL CHANGES FOR THE SHORT TERM. 00Z NAM AND
00Z GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING EVOLUTION OF CUTOFF UPPER LOW
ALONG THE NORTHWEST WASHINGTON COAST. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEAST WASHINGTON. AT THE SAME TIME...NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA CONTINUES TO PUSH
A COOL AIRMASS/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD AIR OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA SLOSHES BACK AND FORTH UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE STRONG
CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA RETROGRADES WESTWARD AND SENDS A
DEEPER COOL PUSH ACROSS THE DIVIDE AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND
CENTRAL IDAHO ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG
AND NEAR THE BACKDOOR FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAKES A BIT
MORE PROGRESS SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESS WEDNESDAY NIGHT PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT ROGERS PASS NORTHWESTWARD TO
KALISPELL AND EUREKA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE
MONTANA-IDAHO BORDER AND NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
MONTANA ON FRIDAY...MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE DIVIDE. SO HAVE DECREASED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND KEPT THE BEST CHANCE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. STILL LOOKS LIKE WESTERN MONTANA IS IN FOR A COOL DOWN...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MAINLY
NORTHERLY AND KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF SMOKE SHOULD RETURN TO THE MISSOULA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WEST WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
AND I-90 FIRE ACTIVITY INCREASES. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY AT KMSO. NO OTHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CLOUD FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
ABOVE THE CRITICAL LEVEL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...KOLATA
AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...CHURCH
weather.gov/missoula

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION TO ISSUE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
744 AM MDT WED AUG 10 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     HAIL             SULA                    45.85N 113.93W
08/10/2005  0.75 INCH        RAVALLI            MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NICKLESS
weather.gov/missoula