Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Missoula, MT

000 
WWUS55 KMSO 062340
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
536 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2005

MTC063-062345-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-050506T2345Z/
MISSOULA MT-
536 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING VALID UNTIL 545 PM MDT FOR 
EASTERN MISSOULA COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVED THROUGH CLINTON AND NOW OVER POTOMAC HAS 
WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER SEVERE. HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONG 
WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  POTOMAC BY 520 PM MDT

LAT...LON 4677 11371 4675 11360 4705 11339 4711 11371

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
113 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...ACTIVE EVENING IN STORE FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. FIRST CONCERN OF THE EVENING WILL BE THE BUILD UP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY HAVE JUST BROKEN THE CAP AND
STARTED TO POP UP. LINE OF MAINLY SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS LIES
ALONG CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OREGON. HAVE INCREASED THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES
AROUND LEMHI COUNTY AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE. A COUPLE OF THESE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
A GREAT DEAL OF PRECIPITATION IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...SO THIS
SHOULD BE WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE OLD BURNED AREAS FOR
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
INCREASED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTHWEST MONTANA...WHICH IS
ALSO EXTREMELY CLOSE TO...JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF...THE
OROFINO GRANGEVILLE REGION. THESE SHOWERS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ARE
VERY SLOW MOVING AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE. PENDLETON AND BOISE HAVE ISSUED FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES RESPECTIVELY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL JUST BORDER OUR IDAHO REGIONS THIS
EVENING AND KEEP US OUT OF FLOODING HAZARD POTENTIAL. BUT...IT
MUST BE WATCHED VERY CLOSE FOR IF THIS PRECIPITATION MOVES EVER SO
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OR NORTH THEN NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO COULD BE IN
FOR ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHTS LOWS.

SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE EXPECT CONTINUED UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE
MOVED EAST...THUS INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT AS TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS EVERYWHERE
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN CLEARWATERS
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...STILL LOOKS TO BE AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY A WEAK RIDGE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WILL LOWER THE POPS
BUT SINCE MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH THAT FAR OUT...WILL HOLD
ON TO SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING HIGH...THEREFORE
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO TURN TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AGAIN...THIS
SHOULD BE THE START TO ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RPN
LONG TERM...AJK
weather.gov/missoula