Alert archive / Virginia / Snow Advisories in 2005

Snow Advisory 2, NWS Morristown, TN

December 5, 20054 counties in Tennessee; 7 counties in Virginia

NWS Morristown, TN issued this snow advisory at Dec 5, 2005, 3:03 AM EST for 4 counties in Tennessee; 7 counties in Virginia. It took effect at Dec 5, 2005, 4:00 AM EST. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Dec 5, 2005, 3:03 AM EST (08:03 UTC)
In effect from: Dec 5, 2005, 4:00 AM EST
Expired: Dec 5, 2005, 2:43 PM EST
In force: 11 hr
Issued by: NWS Morristown, TN

Counties Carter County, TN, Greene County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 232 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 982 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 158 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this snow advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this snow advisory went out at Dec 4, 2:41 PM EST, 12 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 4, 2:41 PM EST, 12 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
241 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE PROVIDED
VERY LITTLE CLARIFICATION FOR UPCOMING EVENT. THERES GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE ON COLD FRONT NEAR THE GULF COAST
AND MOVING IT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THERE ARE CRITICAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE TRACK HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NAM TRACKS SURFACE
LOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT SYNOPTICALLY. HOWEVER...THE GFS
SUPPRESSES THE TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST RESULTING IN MOST OF THE
PRECIP OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE
CANADIAN GEM GENERALLY LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS SOLUTION.
INCLINATION IS TO FAVOR SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES (SREF) WHICH APPEARS
TO REPRESENT A REASONABLY GOOD COMPROMISE OF SOLUTIONS. BASED ON
THIS SOLUTION...WARNING CRITERIA WOULD BE REACHED IN OUR SW VIRGINIA
COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS
POSSIBLE IN NE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN PLATEAU AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD TEND TO FAVOR MIX. FOR
TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GFS GUIDANCE VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(MON NIGHT THROUGH SUN)...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
EARLY MON NIGHT SHOULD DIMINISH AND END BY TUE MORNING.  MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONGER TERM...WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW HPC SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THINGS DRY...WITH TEMPS
BELOW CLIMO FOR THE MOST PART.  GFS IS SHOWING POSSIBILITY OF A
SYSTEM BRINGING PRECIP BY SUN...BUT WITH IT BEING DAY 7 WILL LEAVE
IT OUT FOR NOW AND WAIT TO SEE IF OTHER MODELS AND LATER RUNS
CONFIRM.  WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM GFS MOS TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  41  44  26  48 / 100  80  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  40  25  43 /  90  80  20  10
OAK RIDGE, TN  38  40  25  43 /  90  80  20  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  35  37  23  40 /  90  90  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: JOHNSON...SOUTHEAST CARTER...SOUTHEAST
     GREENE...AND UNICOI.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...CAMPBELL...
     CLAIBORNE...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...
     MORGAN...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST GREENE...SCOTT TN...
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SULLIVAN...AND WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...AND
     WISE.

&&

LCM/LDW

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 4, 6:35 PM EST, 8 hours 28 minutes before

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Nearby

Snow Advisories in Virginia, 2005 Snow Advisories in Tennessee, 2005 Every snow advisory in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.