Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Morristown, TN

000 
WWUS54 KMRX 142030
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
428 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

TNC145-142038-
/O.CAN.KMRX.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-050514T2045Z/
ROANE TN-
428 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ROANE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR EAST TENNESSEE.

LAT...LON 3588 8428 3582 8417 3564 8416 3566 8453
      3568 8453 3575 8445 3585 8433 3588 8429

$$

TNC105-142045-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-050514T2045Z/
LOUDON TN-
428 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR
LOUDON COUNTY...

AT 423 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LOUDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FORT LOUDOUN DAM...TELLICO DAM...LENOIR CITY AND EATON CROSSROADS
  BY 435 PM EDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...
IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3588 8428 3582 8417 3564 8416 3566 8453
      3568 8453 3575 8445 3585 8433 3588 8429

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE
...AND EVEN MORE CONVECTION FIRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
NO WARNINGS ISSUED YET...CLEARLY WE HAVE THE NEED FOR HIGH POPS FOR
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 15/06Z.  WILL CONTINUE A BREAK DOWN OF
THE ZONE GROUPINGS TO FIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 276 UNTIL 7PM
EDT.  KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY JUST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT DROPPED THE THUNDER THREAT LATE TONIGHT.

MINIMAL TIME TO LOOK OVER MODEL DATA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO UPDATES
AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  BASICALLY ADJUSTED LATER GRIDS
TO STAY IN TOLERANCE WITH NEIGHBORS GRIDS AND THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER SUNDAY MORNING WITH COOLER AIR TO
SHUNT TEMPS BACK TO ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WILL KEEP EARLY PART OF
FCST DRY AS MOSTLY DRY NW UPPER FLO EXISTS TUE WITH MUCH OF THE FA
DRY THRU WED. EXCEPTION BEING SW VA/SMALL PART OF NE TN AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM FRONTAL PUSH WITH SOME ENERGY DROPPING SE DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPR TROF. NEXT MAJOR WAVE WITH FRONTAL
SYSTEM PRESSES THRU THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE REGION
THU INTO FRI AND WILL KEEP THE MEDIUM CHC POPS GOING FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. WILL DRY OUT MOST OF THE REGION ON FRI BUT MODELS SHOW
SOME TRAILING S/WV ENERGY DROPPING SE ACROSS SW VA/NE TN ON THE BACK
SIDE OF UPR TROF TO KEEP CHC FOR -SHRA/-TSRA ALIVE IN THIS REGION.
HAD TO USE A SLGT CHC POP FOR SAT AS ANOTHER COLD UPR LOW FINDS A
HOME OVR THE ERN GREAT LAKES/NERN U.S. WITH VORTS ROTATING AROUND
THIS FEATURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  76  49  74 /  80  20  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  58  72  48  72 /  80  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       57  73  46  71 /  80  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              58  69  44  68 /  80  30  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC......NONE.
TN......NONE.
VA......NONE.

&&

TG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 14 2005

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-151000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
500 AM EDT (400 AM CDT) SAT MAY 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION TODAY...
TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

DMG