Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
247 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND OROGRAPHIC FLOW PULSING GOOD UPDRAFTS DURING PEAK HEATING ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTN/EVE. A PATTERN SHIFT HAS EVOLVED WHICH WILL AFFECT
WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. WEAK BOUNDARY AT
EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SINK DOWN INTO N MRX CWA ON
SAT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG N GLFMEX BECOMING BETTER DEFINED
THROUGH SUNDAY. SYSTEM WILL DRIFT N IN TN VLY AND WEAKEN BY LATER IN
THE PERIOD. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL ENHANCE UPR DIFFLUENCE OVR THE
AREA AND INCREASE SE FLOW AND DEEPEN MOISTURE. MORE CLOUD COVER AND
HIGHER POPS ARE IN THE OFFERING. MODEL THICKNESS VALUES APPEAR TO
DROP EXCESSIVELY ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUD COVER LOOKS OVERDONE.
STAYED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS TEMP GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...GFS INDICATING FRONT LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.  SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO 40 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DECENT MOISTURE
EXPECTED.  GFS INDICATING DRIER WEATHER PUSHING IN ON THURSDAY...
BUT STILL MAY SEE ISOLATED DIURNAL ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             71  90  71  87 /  20  30  30  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  90  67  85 /  20  30  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  89  68  86 /  20  30  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              65  87  63  84 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC......NONE.
TN......NONE.
VA......NONE.

&&

SON/GH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
405 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2005

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-060830-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
405 AM EDT (305 AM CDT) FRI AUG 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND
SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
AREAS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1230 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK RIDGE               35.96N 84.30W
08/04/2005                   ANDERSON           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HWY 95 NEAR WHITE OAK DAM.

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N CLINTON             36.15N 84.13W
08/04/2005                   ANDERSON           TN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE DOWN NEAR PEACH ORCHARD.

&&

MEP